A MarketPlace of Ideas

Supporters of Ron Paul.  Too funny.

The antennas are the best part.

Oil prices are at record levels and going higher.  See analysis for effect on USA economy.   In short order 2 years or less the cost of energy will be so high that no one will be willing to allow a higher tax to be levied on energies.   If so it will by practicalities be limited to a great extent.  Couple this with the abundant evidence that the world is now cooling and due to the sun not CO2. 

In that MMGW is a complete and total canard to raise taxes it is obvious to me that its days as a cause are extremely limited.   Without the profit motive to keep it alive it will surely die.  RIP MMGW.

Currently demand is outstripping supply for oil. That’s the easy part.

The price of oil will continue to go up until some group of people uses less and demand comes into line with supply.  Who will that be?  Currently the USA uses the most oil per capita of any group.   The dollar is falling in addition.  Thus the highest probability is that oil price equilibrium will be found when the USA reduces usage.  

There are 2 trends that will affect this

1- The USA economy will slow down.  If we are not in a recession we will be by the time oil prices work their magic.  Already the housing crisis appeared to gotten us very close to recession. Oil insures it will happen.

2- There is a vanguard of series electric gasoline hybrid vehicles that will be coming on the market in the next 5 years.  Their success will in the longer term take pressure off of oil.  Look for efficiencies of all types to be increased. 

We’re entering a period when no amount of drilling could ever keep up.  We should by all means be drilling as much as possible.  Before this chapter of the American economy is written there will be oil wells anywhere we think there is oil in the USA.  Its only a matter of time.  The pain will become so great that the electorate will finally toss out all the garbage liberal wilded eyed ecological arguments against drilling.  The ecological niche people think about most is the house they live in.

A heuristic argument to further elaborate the dynamics of point 1 and 2 above:  

-1- An American driver drives 250 miles per week -> Marginal benefit of last mile driven is very small.

-2- A new Indian driver shortly before getting his first car drives 0 miles per week.  -> Marginal benefit of first mile driven is HUGE.

-3- The demand for oil will be steady state when MARGINALBENEFIT ( AMERICAN ) = MARGINALBENEFIT( INDIAN )

Obviously the new drivers can afford / justify their first mile much more than an American driver can justify increasing miles driven from 250 to 251 miles per week.  Its that simple.  T

We’re in for some rough times ahead.  As the Chinese philosopher said “rough times are just another word for opportunity” ( paraphrasing)

Now for a quick arithemetic prediction of where the price per barrel of oil is going:

-1- use demand finally declined a little = 190,000 barrels ( less than 1% )

-2- chinese demand increased by 330,000. 

If I had the USA decline figure all by itself I would simply use theory of oscillators to say the price of oil will go to about 200 dollars / barrel.  See the chinese figure leave me thinking that the demand will remain inelastic for some time to come.  Thus currently I’m predicting north of 200 before equilibrium is restored.

What to do?

If you are not currently for drilling everywhere we can in the USA you soon will be.  The answer is to DRILL DRILL DRILL.  The alternatives energies will be too long in coming.

Mitch the Erectile Dysfunction:  Let’s put a choker collar on these guys

By his thinking I guess it’s time we get over Lincoln too…what an antique!   While we’re at it, let’s get over Washington, Jefferson and Franklin. What the hell did they know about running a nation? And what about that dusty old Constitution and Bill of Rights?

The voters of Indiana should dump Governor Daniels for his Reagan comments. I know it might mean a democrat governor is elected. That will be tough luck. He is not fit to shine the shoes of Ronald Reagan.

He must be removed.  This is the type of thing that makes me think let B.O. or Billary win.  Its better than eating these limosine republicans crap.  If you think you’re going to increase McPain turn out with comments like this?  You have lost your mind.

Let him know his value is low. This guy needs to be taken down to the point his ego level matches his true value. This value is negative.

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