Archive for September, 2008

Solar wind weakest since the beginning of the space age

Thursday, September 25th, 2008

The solar wind is propelled by the sun’s activity.  Thus solar activity is likely going lower.     I predict you will see some notable cooling this winter.

Solar wind weakest since beginning of space age

Additional radiation into our atmosphere will act as they do in a Wilson Cloud chamber and cause cloud formation to increase. 

To bail out or to bail in

Wednesday, September 24th, 2008
The 1 trillion dollar bailout of Wall Street is complicated.  How am I to judge it?  It is scary to think we most likely stand on the edge of a 1930’s style depression.  It is scary to think of not doing anything.  But the New Deal did not turn out so well for democracy.  Maybe it is time to consider death.  Death is the end of one thing and the beginning of another.  Death has been an integral part of evolution since day 1 of life on Earth.   Luckily in this case death is not of your body but of the present state of doing business in Washington and Wall Street.
 
Since the bailout is a complicated item. There are some common sense questions one can ask around the issue.
  • In a trillion dollar pie what are the odds that the politicians can keep their fingers out ?  0 in case you have trouble with this
  • What will rationalize our economy more quickly?  We have had 30ish years of coastal oil drilling ban.  A financial solution will delay this more.  Tough times will force people to "get real" and push for the practical realistic things that clearly must be done
  • There is no guarantee this bailout will have the desired effect.  You can however be assured of the undesirable effects.  In the end I think it might be that we suffer just as much with a bailout as without.
  • Foregoing a bailout might result in a depression but the last time we did a "New Deal"  it did not work out well for democracy.
  • One can reasonably suggest that a "financial dictatorship" might be the result of this government intervention similar to the military dictatorship in Brazil 1964-1985
  • The longer the federal government head fakes towards this bailout the longer the private capital markets will hold off doing what they know they need to do waiting for a more favorable outcome from Uncle MoneyBags.

Alot of people use the language of the Religion of the Left and say "greed" on Wall Street caused this problem.  However when totally logical results occur from totally predictable situations we should not be surprised that people do what just about anyone would do.  Who is wrong there?  The guy on Wallstreet who grabs the cash or we who collectively have sexual fantasies about the Beatles and use totally impractical economic policy?   At least the guy on Wall St. is in touch with reality.   Excessive liquidity is the ultimate scoundrel here.  When interest rates are too low you get excessive speculation.  Reasonable levels of speculation result in everything new.  You have to speculate to develop new ideas.   Excessive speculation is in the eye of the beholder but most people will agree we have had excessive real estate speculation.

 
Regarding the bailout
   
I have a simple test.  I ask myself what will do most to increase the following:  coal fired / nuclear / domestic oil drilling on the OCS?
 
If we do a finance solution it delays the inevitable link to reality.  We live in an economy that needs these inputs and has been bleed white for the lack of them.  Thus I say let the system fail. Picking up the pieces will occur much more rationally than letting government bureaucrats suck up a trillion to futz with.   I can not imagine a scenario where democrats do not try to get a part of this pie. ( Confirmed ACORN-king of voter fraud is slated to receive 100 million dollars )  You might say republicans would want to do this also.  But if they did they would by my definition be democrats.  Unfortunately appears like the vast majority of Washington is populated by democrats.  I don’t see anyone except some really hard core republicans saying "NO".   

 

Its a bit scary though to think about letting it all slide into failure.  I have the feeling we’re precious close to a depression even if they do the bailout. In reality a bailout might cause a depression.  It certainly is going to stretch the collective credit of the nation even further while prolonging the unreality.

If people were truly healthy an economic depression would not be an issue as long as we have adequate food. The panic of 1819 was caused by excessive use of banknotes that were used as currency.  While you can not issue "banknotes" today you could package up CDO’s and sell them.  Sounds equivalent to me and they lived through that.  I know.  Its tough to get up everyday.  You don’t need more trouble in your day. 

The good news

We live in the internet age.  The Great Depression took 12 years and World War II to work its way through the system. Since communications is much more rapid in our era I suspect a more rapid resolution.   The market system is resolving and developing solutions visibly more rapidly than even the era of the 70’s.  An example of system solutions is the electric car.  10 years ago the electric car appeared dead.  Technology in the form of lithium ion batteries has revived this technology and we are on the cusp of exiting the thermodynamic age and entering the quantum age because of it.  We likely have less to fear from a "great depression" than one might calculate if one used the 1930’s as a starting point for calculation.

And thus I say Viva la Revolucion.  I expect the populace to be comprised of many newly minted fiscal conservatives.  We’re about to be taught a mongo economics lesson.

Eat Shit, 50 million flys can not be wrong

Tuesday, September 23rd, 2008

When I was in college I read the this on a stall wall.  Remember it whenever you see alot of people doing the same stupid thing.

A Cottagers Tea Room by George Michaels-If someone comes in for a good honest shit it is like a breath of fresh air

Monday, September 22nd, 2008

Larry Craig tippy tapping his toe beneath the stall wall.  Barney Frank peering over the partition.  On the other side George Michael of Wham fame.     Appears there was the commodious underground but they all appear to have passion was for members of the armed forces.

On the wall is written:

     beware of limbo dancers

     I am 9 inches long and two inches thick. Interested?

     Fascinated, dear, but how big is your dick?

This bathroom is so cruisy that if someone comes in there for a good honest shit it is like a breath of fresh air.

 Do you know Morse code?  Do you use the tippy tap toe telegraph ?   And you wonder why they always are talking about the reach across the aisle?  

As the SWAT team surrounded the lew Larry Craig is quoted as shouting "I’M NOT COMING OUT!"  What would old Thomas Crapper have to say about all this?

On the whole there is no glory in this story.  Outside the roto-router team works day and night to unclog the lines.  Frequent is heard the cry "MAN THE HOLE"

What really caused the housing debacle and lead to the government bailouts of Freddie MAC Fannie Mae AIG

Sunday, September 21st, 2008

What happened to Fannie Mae / Freddie Mac / AIG  was more a direct result of easy money low interest FED policy than anything else.  Factoring in inflation our interest rates have been either %0 or even negative.  See my article about the Rolling Liquidity Bubble.

We had 3 rapid succession booms.  Internet / Real Estate / Oil.  How does one explain this? unDemocrats have a neurotic hatred of oil so there’s probably a surfeit of regulation in that area.  Yet oil boomed and is still relatively high at 100 US dollar per barrel.

What explains events?  I think its effective 0% interest rates.  When interest rates are too low people can afford to go lightly into them without the due diligence of intense worry.  Money got slung around in excess.  Momentum patterns set up in internet, housing and then oil.  When the speculators see a momentum pattern if they have sufficient liquidity they buy in and reinforce that pattern.  When you have excessive money supply a momentum pattern is bound to set up somewhere as people search for a way to increase their wealth.   People have survival instincts.  They do this naturally!  You want people to be suicidal ??? 

Speculators speculate.  That is what they do. Oh yes and you too are a speculator if you have ever bought anything for any reason.  Thus it makes no sense  to point fingers and say "Dirty low down speculators".   It only makes you look like an IQ challenged liberal.  It makes no sense to point your fingers at Barnie Frank and the unDemocrats.  unDemocrats do what unDemocrats do and that is skim off the casino like the mobsters they are.     There is only one form of regulation that prevents these speculative momentum patterns:  Meaningful interest rates !    You want to stop the skimmers?  Shut down the casino with meaningful interest rates.   No politician is going to go for that option.  It has to be forced upon them.   The 70’s only gave way to the 80’s after interest rates shot up and put the game to an end.    You can be assured that the current era of easy money will only end after the same sort of sequence.

Thus we play with fire if the terms of any of these gargantuan bailouts are too easy.  Unfortunately Its not realistic for me to ask that the offending entities be left to go out of business as no one asks my opinion.   If it were up to me their assets would be auctioned off to people with money.  The people with money right now are the last men standing.  They avoided the mistakes.   Who better to entrust?  The government? Please.  That’s crazy talk.

In the mean time we are hamstringing our financial sensing apparatus by banning short selling.  Most stock holders do not study companies intently.  They buy the stock on the advice of someone they know.   The options traders do us great favors by studying intently these companies.  For if you are an options trader and do not do your homework you soon have a new profession.

WP Classifieds Plugin Installation errors - Invalid argument supplied for foreach() in /wp-includes/functions.php on line 1052

Sunday, September 21st, 2008

I tried installing the wp-classifieds plugin.  When I did I received the following error message:

   Invalid argument supplied for foreach() in …..   /wp-includes/functions.php on line 1052

Where the …. continuation is the first part of my URL which will differ from yours.  When I de-installed this plug in my top page wordpress theme was messed up.  It was rendered very narrow and I still had the above error line listed twice before the page rendering.  

In order to get the theme back to normal I went into the DESIGN menu and re-selected my theme.  After that the rendering was back to normal.

I really want to try this plugin but will need the authors assistance before I can do this.  http://forgani.com/wpclassified-plugins/

Wikipedia Semantic Web Search

Thursday, September 18th, 2008

http://wikipedia.cognition.com/

Drivers side sun damage of the human body shows more sun damage according to dermatologist

Monday, September 15th, 2008

I just went to a dermatologist for a small area on my face I suspected to be a pre-cancer.  He mentioned that people experience more sun damage on the left due to that sides proximity to the drivers side door window and the resultant increased exposure to the sun.   So maybe you even need to where sunblock when you drive your car.

Bush Derangement Syndrome does have some upsides-Bush Pilot

Sunday, September 14th, 2008

This video is made more funny by the fact its in german with subtitles.

 

Drink Red Wine before running to lose weight

Saturday, September 13th, 2008

I run everyday lately because I wanted to lose some weight and lower my blood pressure.  The easiest way to keep blood pressure down and make the run more easy is to drink 1/3 of a cup of red wine before my jog. Here is the sequence:

  • drink 1/3 cup of wine to thin blood and dialate capillairys about 45 minutes before running
  • Continuously drink water during the subsequent 45 minutes. This also thins blood. 
  • Run 2.5 miles
  • do the run in the mid to late afternoon.  I do not wait till evening or I will have trouble sleeping
  • The wine will help you your muscles be more loose from the beginning. Warm up time shortened.
  • If you want to goose things up a bit you can start your day drinking water then 1/2 cup of coffee - only a little as coffee drys you out pretty badly - green tea is better.

Now you may think this is just another dumb health tip but its not.  There is something in the red wine that makes you lose fat much MUCH more effectively.  I have tried loosing weight running 6 miles without the wine and lose very little and very slowly.  Whereas when I use the wine its much easier.

I am 47 years old and was seeing 130 / 80 blood pressure with resting heart rate of 60 beats per minute before starting running again.  This is not a good set of numbers for me.  After 2 months of wine and training its 120 / 53 with 47 beats per minute.

The last time I did this was when I was 38.  I was combining it with lifting weights and it was highly effective.  The photo below is from 1999 when I was 38.   I do not know what is in red wine that makes it so effective in increasing health and fitness but whatever it is it works for me.   I wish I would have known about this from day 1 of life as I believe it probably extends life just as some scientific reports are finding.  It may be as little as helping people just stay fit. 

Red wine definitely slightly supresses my appetite.