The U.K. is trying to force Iceland into giving up its claims on arctic oil and gas in compensation for their losses with Icelandic banks.   Nevermind the glaring non sequitur  that U.K. investors lost money in a private bank and not with the Icelandic government. 

It really bears watching because ordinary citizens that had no dog in the hunt are being asked to pay for what private banks did.  That's like running out onto the street and randomly grabbing some stranger and making him liable for my debts.   What is so central and bears watching is that there are many situations in the world economy where the innocent bystander is going to be asked to pay.  This may have flown in yesteryear but factoring in the internet these politicians might find a whole new era ushered in.   The best thing that could happen is that all banks that have failed to fully do so with out any government support.  Investors must learn that the saying of the day is caveat emptor and that there are no citizens standing by with ambulances to cart them of if they make a mistake.

Governments trying to institute a program against the will of the people? Its part of a revolution that is coming to a town very near you.   More on Birgitta Jonsdottir.

None of the things Mr. T. Obama is doing are going to help the economy.  Quite the opposite our problems have been exacerbated.   All the freshly minted Obama dollars are go Wall Street and get forwarded automatically into oil and commodity speculation.  Meanwhile people have less spending power to buy.   With all the presidents crazy fixes for the economy its getting hard to tell WHO-SANE anymore.  That is before even considering the insanity of the democrats health care foist-ware.  The country has 30 million people with no health care insurance?  Democrat solution?  Put them all in jail if they do not buy health insurance.  Now THAT is lifting yourself up by the boot straps!

The best hope for democracy in the USA is for the federal government to default on its debt so no one ever lends them another dime.   There will be many more fiscal conservatives when the true weight of taxation falls upon us. 

Mister Obama is insuring he is a one term president which is good but we will all have to suffer mightily for that priviledge.

Debt on Parade

 Summary Points

• 53 trillion in debt outstanding in the economy as reconned by the Federal Reserve
• Consumers have hit debt wall
• Private business has hit debt wall
• State and Local government have hit debt wall
• Only Federal government debt and "bets on financial activity" are still going up – attempt to keep up the charade?
• debt to GDP – very stable until mid 1980’s – had very low interest rates during 1950’s and 1960’s – did not have unsustainability – he blames deregulation
• In 2000 per capita credit declined – Greenspan cranked open credit and created the bubble – then we ran into the credit wall
• You can see the credit wall in the graph
• How to get the economy moving again? How get debt ratio down to level of year 2000? – You would have to take 50% off of the debt outstanding or increase GDP significantly and thereby increase consumer income
• What will the outcome of continuing to pull forward demand by borrowing by the federal government? 
• What is the outcome of placing ever larger bets on the price of commodities and equities by financial institutions?
• There is no way to get the GDP to grow again without consumers income increasing
• Appears to be a mathematically impossible attempt to stimulate the economy
• To the individual – make sure you have a sturdy desk nearby that you can get under in case of economic earthquake.

I know alot of Argentinians – they have all been very nice people.  That being said their naivite regarding the applications of morals in government is their undoing.  Their theory propounded in the video is that their government sold them out.   However I posit that your government will always sell you out.  It is populated by people with large egos and very good self images. Would you expect them not to treat their wonderful selves to as many goodies as they can gulp down? I  would also suggest for instance in the petroleum industry their real problem as a lack of a dynamic private sector petroleum industry.  By in the beginning establishing a government petroleum company they eliminated the possibility of a dynamic private companies.   

Its sad to see such good people put such belief in "morals" or what is "right".  For this rarely has any bearing on the outcome.   Only by playing the games of real politik can you maintain your freedom.   Something Americans should consider.

 In the style of the acclaimed CIVIL WAR series, THE PRIZE tells the epic history of oil – how it has dominated global politics, shaken the world economy, and transformed our century. Shot on location in Azerbaijan, Egypt, England, Indonesia, Japan, Kuwait, Mexico, Russia, Scotland, Turkey, and the United States, the series features fascinating characters, never-before-seen archival footage, newly filmed segments, and interviews with the people who shaped the oil industry. Yergin appears on camera throughout the series to discuss oil’s impact on politics, economics, and the environment. We see how oil becomes the largest industry in the world–a game of huge risks and monumental rewards. Narrated by Donald Sutherland, THE PRIZE represents cinematic storytelling at its best – a historically significant tale of a quest for mastery that has revolutionized our civilization." PART ONE: Our Plan "Trace the turbulent, rapid rise of the world’s biggest business, how a visionary but ruthless John D. Rockefeller controlled it–and how reporter Ida Tarbell took him on in one of the most famous muckraking exposes ever. A fascinating look at Rockefeller’s controversial legacy, the rise of modern business, and how Tarbell served as the role model for the modern investigative journalist

Part 2

The Prize Episode Two: Empires of Oil "Witness capitalism on a grand scale: how Shell Oil and Royal Dutch merged, then challenged the supremacy of Rockefeller’s Standard Oil. A compelling tale of how oil transformed everyday life in the farthest corners of the globe, made Russia a great oil power, and helped the Allies win World War I

 Part 3

The Prize Episode Three: The Black Giant "It’s the Roaring Twenties, and the magic of oil touches everyone, from millions of new car owners to hopeful Texan wildcatters. The American oil industry wrestles with shortage and surplus, as flamboyant entrepreneur Calouste Gulbenkian stakes his claim in Iraq

Part 4

The Prize Episode Four: War and Oil "The untold story of World War II unfolds: how oil dictated strategy to Hitler; how lack of oil slowed Japan’s war machine; how oil ultimately determined victory or defeat. Features rare footage on the critical impact of oil on decisive military events

Part 5

The Prize Episode Five: Crude Diplomacy "Post World War II America awakens to the strategic importance of oil and witnesses a key moment in history when oil production shifts from the US to the Middle East. An extraordinary cast of characters, including Arabian kings, US presidents, British adventurers, Iranian politicians, and American explorers paint a global portrait of how oil shaped the world economy and politics

Part 6

The Prize Episode Six: Power to the Producers "It’s the heyday of cheap oil, the dawn of the Hydrocarbon Society…and the introduction of a prosperous new automobile culture for Americans. Follow the flamboyant characters, plots, and counterplots, as the producing countries and the independent oil companies challenge the "Seven Sisters"–and open a new era in world oil

Part 7

 The Prize Episode Seven: The Tinderbox "Relive two decades of upheaval that shook the world as power shifted, and nations and companies jockeyed for position–amidst embargoes, shortages, and surpluses. A unique view of the rise of the OPEC era, beginning with the British withdrawal from the Persian Gulf and ending with the burning oil wells of Kuwait

Part 8

The Prize Episode Eight: The New Order of Oil "The Gulf War marked the beginning of a new era for the Hydrocarbon Society. This program explores the relationship between oil and the environmental conscience, and the technological race to balance energy, economic, and ecological needs in the Information Age

Video Notes

• I have seen this kind of stability analysis applied before.  It is valid for circuits and system functions – I would posit it is valid for economic systems
• When economies start using debt to drive employment things are ok for a few economic cycles – then you hit a last cycle when debt taken on is huge – the economic levitation ends – the economy shuts down.
• The blue trace with loops is a tracing of oscillator "squegging" as we call it in electrical engineering – parametric modulation
• because private debt levels are so high private deleveraging can overwhelm government deficit spending
• writing off the bad debt – a.k.a. recognizing the bad debt is the only solution
• to stabilize the system the system should be tweaked to limit the amount of personal debt individuals are willing to take on – base housing loan prices on rents you can get for said house instead of what appraisers conjure up
• Full talk at the Whitlam Institute is here
• The associated PowerPoint presentation is here

Britain was on the edge of bankruptcy at the end of world war 2.  They owed money to the USA and at the same time they wanted to undertake a huge welfare effort including socialized medicine.  Sound familiar?   Sounds like the USA to me in 2009 under Obama. If you have interest in economics you need to watch all 5 of these shows.  In many ways the USA appears to be squarely on the same path as this has been empire.  

…..And just so you know Britain paid off the last of the loans from this era in the 2000’s. 

From video description: Britain in 1945; the country is victorious but nearly bankrupt. As Clement Attlee’s Labour government sets out to build ‘New Jerusalem’, Britain is forced to hold out the begging bowl in Washington. Though Ealing Studios produces a series of very British comedies and there is a spirit of hope in the air, the British people’s growing impatience with austerity threatens to take the country from bankruptcy to self-destruction.

Viewing Notes

• To be added upon second viewing

Links to all the videos

Andrew Marr’s History of Modern Britain
Episode 1 – Advance Britannia 1945-1955
Episode 2 – The Land of Lost Content 1955-1964
Episode 3 – Paradise Lost 1964-1979
Episode 4 – Revolution! 1979-1990
Episode 5 – New Britannia 1990-2007

Here is the break down of the situation in his words:

Here is just a small example of little things that nobody hears about:

•  http://www.city-data.com/forum/politics-other-controversies/583978-sec-increases-transaction-fee-per-april.html
• http://www.tickerforum.org/cgi-ticker/akcs-www?post=85835

 When you’re primarily a liquidity provider and trying to make pennies and your effective tax rate quadruples it makes things difficult. Lots of liquidity is going to dry up for folks who want to invest too if they kill those responsible for the markets working under the veil of "punishing those evil wall street barons"   For example say your total commission on making a penny is 0.35 cents.  After raising the fees to 1.5 pennies you are losing money. Only so much of your commission is negotiated with your clearing broker. The majority is a passthrough SEC fees.  Now assume you are expecting a winning of a trade if (roughly) normal probability distribution with 2 std. deviations of trades lying under 1.5 cps profit you have now shut down over 95% of your trading.
Remember those numbers are per 1 mil transacted easy to do when you’re making pennies providing lots of liquidity for other market participants.  So now you can see these trades are poof !…gone.

The talking idiots like John Stewart can joke about how it is a "$20 increase they’re complaining about…greedy hairy backed old white republicans"   Stewart is a paid fool whose job does not require any mathematical homework.  This does not bode well for liquidity.

Highly recommended Ron Paul interview from 1988.  Please add comments about what is said in the video so others searching for particular content will find this video.

• Republicans and democrats tend to have their strings pulled the same people – by the power structure – that being said Ron Paul is a Republican and thus I conclude Republicans are marginally better
• Foreign bonds can be used by the Federal Reserve as collateral.
• Federal Reserve is a private corporation but it is mandated by the government and has the power to print money.
• Congressman are not allowed to go to Federal Reserve meetings
• Ron Paul was already campaigning for a Federal Reserve audit in 1988 and before
• Federal Reserve clears checks
• Government can tax, borrow or inflate.  Fed is designed to accommodate the politicians
• Not everyone suffers the inflation equally.  Government and some large corporations benefit.  The poor saver is played for a sap.
• Arrogance of government – they think they can control the market
• Bankers ultimate out is to say to the politician that power is threatened
• Emergencies power is designed into the Federal Reserve
• FEMA planning for economic emergencies was suppressed during Iran Contra hearings by a democrat congressman
• Fractional reserve banking yielded inflation and a crash in the 1920’s and the great depression.
• Paul predicted a recession in 1988.  A little early but not that early all things considered.
• Austrian economics is better than Keynesian
• Great depression of 1988 is 20 years late = 2008
• Ron Paul is for the gold standard
• Ron Paul – very hard to abolish the Federal Reserve
• Bail outs are structured to maintain the power structure
• Bankers will eventually resort to intimidation of politicians – sounds like the Goldman Sachs bailout !
• Fed can hold a Mexican bond and used as collateral for monetization , create new money and distributed paper money. Thus your currency maybe backed up by worthless paper
• International bankers are tight with each other. Central bankers get together and make plans independently.
• Panama Canal treaty – Panama had trouble making their payments to the banks – needed better cash flow – the panama canal treaty occurred and they had better cash flow – now their Noriega is not so obedient.  Bankers wanted rid of him.  Noriega suggested if they got too close he would disclose information
• Use drug trade as excuse to have currency controls to prevent American citizens from moving money out of the USA.  Prevent wealth preservation
• Foreign investments in the USA circa 1988 – stop subsidizing our competitors such as Japan.  
• Foreigners buy our debt when it does not make much sense.  They buy to maintain their internal order also.  Long term we can not pay the debt.  Foreigners will be left holding the debt.  That will be the precipitating event of the crisis.
• Dismantling the power structure is not a simple thing

Revealing interview from the August, 1988 broadcast of Frank Morrow’s "Alternative Views" found at archive.org. It cements Dr. Paul’s place as America’s leading economic prophet crying in the wilderness and a voice we ignore at our own loss. At the time of the interview, Dr. Paul was the Libertarian candidate for president. From the original description: "Former four-term Congressman Ron Paul describes the American power structure. As a member of the House Banking and Currency Committee, Paul was in a unique position to see the inner workings of economic power and control of the country, and how this power translates into political power. Paul describes how, through the control of the Federal Reserve and the banking system, the American power elite is basically out of reach of the democratic system." There’s a lot of information contained. Dr. Paul rightly states that many politicians in DC aren’t informed about the nature of banking or economics, a condition that serves the interests of the central banking establishment. He also rightly states that the Federal Reserve, due to its secrecy and power, is nothing less than evil. This American agrees. And Ron Paul is still the only candidate from either party that isn’t a member of the Council on Foreign Relations. Please excuse the sub-standard editing job. It’s my first venture with video software (thanks http://www.squared5.com). This interview was originally released to the net under the Creative Commons license: Attribution-Noncommercial-Share Alike 3.0 United States "DEFINITION OF THE ALTERNATIVES IS THE SUPREME INSTRUMENT OF POWER"