welcome to crash concepts where the.  .  economy energy and the environment are.  .  explored up next fresh ideas and.  .  insights into the factors that are.  .  driving the world at shaping your future.  .  presenting information you can't afford.  .  to live without here's Chris Martenson.  .  Dave column thank you so much for being.  .  back with us and all our listeners here.  .  today hey it's great to be here this is.  .  uh this is a tradition I look forward to.  .  immensely hold me to and hey I'm just.  .  wondering based on something you wrote.  .  in this year's review do we need to.  .  start with a trigger warning here for.  .  any listeners maybe remind them that.  .  their computer has an off button if they.  .  choose well you know I can keep it clean.  .  on a podcast so so it's up to them I.  .  mean if you take me in a direction that.  .  that that I am or someone is as I.  .  actually said in the review and said you.  .  know this is about humor and humor and.  .  sarcasm someone's got to get hurt it.  .  might be your turn well you know what.  .  caught me right up front in part one is.  .  um because this comes in two parts of.  .  course was the Limerick king who you.  .  know we follow each other on Twitter.  .  really like the guy and he started with.  .  there was a med chemist named Dave his.  .  year-in-review is the rave with Epstein.  .  and Powell in repose most foul his.  .  comments are sure to be grave that's a.  .  good yeah i solicit those i so i asked i.  .  asked oh i tell a limerick king what i'm.  .  going to talk about you know what's in.  .  it and I said just whip out a limerick.  .  for me and then I most years I have Jeff.  .  Mackey of CNBC Fame without some art but.  .  as his life is remarkably fallen so I.  .  actually had my wife do that so I intend.  .  to open with a cup with a limerick in a.  .  Mackey original but you got a Candice.  .  eCornell original is done fantastic you.  .  know as I was reading through this it.  .  really feels like this Year in Review.  .  has a very different flavor from the.  .  prior ones and I'm wondering if you'd be.  .  willing to talk about that yeah you know.  .  it's it's when I write this thing it's.  .  so I go real deep lizard brain on this.  .  and as I actually spend more time at the.  .  opening describing where it comes from.  .  and how I write it I actually give an.  .  autobiography so there's always an about.  .  the author part but I go deeper I go.  .  back to when I was 12 years old it's.  .  only a page so you know it's it is funny.  .  and and but but I kind of explained.  .  myself part because of the feel that it.  .  was different so this year I wrote it.  .  and I wrote it in order of importance.  .  and so I picked the section I thought.  .  was most important when I had to write.  .  then I pick the second one in the third.  .  one when I got to the end and you know.  .  you can't write a year in review in May.  .  right and so so I have to write it all.  .  at once and I bang out I think this.  .  one's a hundred and forty-seven pages.  .  right and so this is you know I'm kind.  .  of rewriting at this rate of way about.  .  Buckley at this point um and uh and I.  .  got to the end and I looked at and I go.  .  holy cow the entire thing is about.  .  social change.  .  and one things it's omitted and I don't.  .  even know if people be disappointed or.  .  happy but there's there's not much.  .  finance actually and the one of the.  .  reasons is because it feels like we're.  .  at the top of something and it feels.  .  like we're on the cusp of something and.  .  and even if we're not I mean it's just.  .  getting crazier and to document it yeah.  .  to document getting crazier just somehow.  .  didn't make sense to me this year so you.  .  know there were stupid IPOs and dumb.  .  debt and all sorts of stuff that's been.  .  getting crazier and crazier.  .  at some point yourself to say okay look.  .  this is the pre-game I'm not going to.  .  pay attention till the game starts and.  .  so I've got reams of notes and I sorted.  .  them and then I just I said look I'm not.  .  going to write about this stuff this.  .  year or I just didn't get to it as as my.  .  priority I don't write about Trump.  .  because everyone on the planet is.  .  writing about Trump and impeachments and.  .  stuff like that so so I went through the.  .  things that I'd spent a lot of time so.  .  the thing that the absolutely you know.  .  passed like a kidney stone for me was um.  .  was literally 32 pages on climate change.  .  the second part I wrote was an Epstein.  .  which I think is far more profound.  .  then then people are giving it credit.  .  and and then I go back to share buybacks.  .  because people are still missing them.  .  that's kind of financing but my.  .  conclusion goes very dark because I and.  .  part of its unsupported in the sense.  .  that I go dark in ways you go would you.  .  didn't write about that I go yeah but.  .  it's on the cutting room floor and a bug.  .  the crap out of me and so and so uh I.  .  think we're heading for a strange future.  .  here and so as you mentioned in our.  .  pregame discussion that's kind of a.  .  fourth turning field to me mm-hmm and.  .  and this is the the what I really want.  .  to focus on because this has been well.  .  central in my thoughts and heart as well.  .  is that I listen bubbles always get.  .  crazy towards the end right you know and.  .  there are those like I have this bad.  .  habit of detecting bubbles really early.  .  and missing out on a lot of the fun you.  .  know and because I'm more of a.  .  fundamentalist and it always amazes me.  .  that how much longer they can go on then.  .  seems normal.  .  right so the housing bubble I was.  .  shorting very painfully I was in stocks.  .  in 2007 it took a while before they you.  .  know turned around in mortgage insurers.  .  and all that but even here this is this.  .  is this is like this is the third bubble.  .  in a row but it's more extreme it's.  .  everywhere and they're they're doing.  .  whatever it takes to keep it going and.  .  all of that and despite all of their.  .  best efforts and printing these these.  .  happy-happy stock prices with the help.  .  of some Trump tweets always well-timed.  .  you get that sense that there's.  .  something really dark lurking here as.  .  well and that people are as unhappy and.  .  is anxious and is fearful and as.  .  polarized as they've ever been and so.  .  that to me is is the potential energy in.  .  this story like two great static.  .  electricity sources one positive one.  .  negative just sort of building hey look.  .  how great everything is but things.  .  aren't great do you feel that that I.  .  mean you seem to be writing about that.  .  gap and I'm wondering why you think.  .  that's there at all.  .  well um god that's so many layers to an.  .  onion there I happen to just this.  .  morning catch of a quick video of Adam.  .  Schiff getting yelled at by guys in the.  .  audience yes I was wrong all the liars.  .  oh right and these were not you.  .  no hipsters from Harvard right these.  .  were these were salted the earth type.  .  guys to put it bluntly but but but.  .  that's a tactic that used to be let's.  .  say used to be like a year ago or even.  .  six months ago was a tactic in my.  .  opinion you're gonna I'm going to upset.  .  some listeners it was a tactic of the.  .  left right disrupt the speaker you know.  .  interrupt people at dinner you know.  .  stuff like that I don't think the right.  .  was doing that and and I've been.  .  watching for it and I'm sure that other.  .  people see it I don't but but now you.  .  see that and I we don't want to see that.  .  either at some level right I really hate.  .  chef I mean I really hate ship but but.  .  that when when that stuff starts.  .  happening that's a bad sign even if he's.  .  deserving right that's a very bad time.  .  mm-hmm and what does that a sign of do.  .  you think why don't assign the people.  .  are angry right and it's a sign that.  .  that wall to sign the time politics has.  .  gotten completely toxic I was what I'd.  .  call Trump tolerant so I started with a.  .  shaky hand pulled the lever for the.  .  Donald in part because he his platform.  .  was don't bomb the hell out of other.  .  countries it's why I support Tulsi.  .  Gabbard don't bomb the hell out of other.  .  countries and Trump has kind of been.  .  wavering on that I think he's battling.  .  you know the deep state to try not to.  .  bomb other countries too much right that.  .  sort of thing so I think in some sense.  .  he's achieving what he set out to do in.  .  that is I think he's minimizing it but.  .  there's a bad stuff right now you know.  .  you watch the warned Yemen and it's just.  .  a mess um the further along I've got the.  .  more I see him and this is just going to.  .  freak out some your listeners but I see.  .  him as kind of as odd hero figure.  .  battling some very bad people and in any.  .  section unlikely package he's like.  .  Colombo is to law enforcement or.  .  something but III don't you Trump is the.  .  evil person he's got his idiosyncrasies.  .  he's got his flaws he's got everything.  .  that that I I understand why people hate.  .  him but the people he's battling I.  .  really find to be much more dangerous.  .  well it's I think um you know the time.  .  you write about this ironically.  .  don't write about this because it's a.  .  pandemonium out there I know I know and.  .  it's it's we're really deep into the.  .  belief territory you can tell because.  .  the emotions are so high and of course.  .  facts and opinions don't really play.  .  well in that landscape that of course I.  .  think has also been whipped up by the.  .  media which is doing I think just when I.  .  look at it from a PSYOP psych 101 like.  .  what they're doing to me seems really.  .  obviously designed to fracture and.  .  polarize people and so what's.  .  interesting is you know you see the.  .  people show up with their pink hats and.  .  you see and Tifa out there like you know.  .  beating people up on the street it's.  .  sort of the you know the retail level.  .  but you know what I haven't seen Dave.  .  not once I haven't seen one organized.  .  protest against health care costs and.  .  the fact that my premiums went up 22.  .  percent this year in healthcare CEOs are.  .  raking in 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 million.  .  dollars each on a yearly basis just for.  .  the CEO add up the whole c-suite who.  .  goes what the numbers are right it's.  .  it's obscene it's perverse and if the.  .  media chose they I think they could whip.  .  up some righteous indignation over that.  .  travesty and racket but they don't and.  .  it feels from now it feels rather.  .  coordinated to me on that front yeah.  .  well I view the media somewhere on the.  .  edge of treasonous um in many many ways.  .  yeah I think that they're I think.  .  they're part of of a and insidious I.  .  don't want people lying to me from.  .  either side right I'd there there's very.  .  few journalists that just seem to try to.  .  get it right I've become a super Tucker.  .  Carlson fan he again is a flawed.  .  character in many ways but I've seen him.  .  go at sacred cows on both teams and I.  .  used to hate him so so somehow people.  .  think this is just some some doctrine.  .  that I'm following you know some.  .  right-wing thing that just follows me.  .  everywhere I go I hated Carlson before.  .  and so it was a real conversion for me.  .  and uh but I I think the guy's amazing.  .  in many ways and so he's won a few guys.  .  well you can't predict which way he's.  .  going to go until he goes there I like.  .  that then there's things like that you.  .  know the Fed is so unmoored there's just.  .  so many things out there that are.  .  unmoored the digital world is taking us.  .  to this digital gulag in my opinion it's.  .  I don't think I'm being hyperbolic I.  .  think I think I think we're heading for.  .  very very bad places and it's not any.  .  one thing right it's of course it's too.  .  much debt and it's it's you know.  .  ridiculous Fed policies but is well.  .  lurking away on the other side is in.  .  fact you know 80 percent of the insects.  .  are gone and we don't know what's.  .  happening to all the fish in the ocean.  .  but they seem to be getting you know.  .  destroyed and and on and on and on so I.  .  have this theory that humans is an.  .  organism where we are evolutionarily.  .  designed to be reactive and sensitive to.  .  our environments which makes a lot of.  .  sense particularly for an adaptive.  .  species like ours you got to know when.  .  it's time to go to the next Valley if.  .  you've sort of played this one out and.  .  we don't have there's nowhere to go.  .  there's no next Valley and we're sort of.  .  playing this one out and we don't really.  .  have a plan for that except more more.  .  more more more of the same which has.  .  gotten us to where we are so I think.  .  that's at least part of the anxiety.  .  people are feeling is this sense that.  .  maybe we're not all going to go to Mars.  .  after all and you know that's also.  .  applies to the American Empire a lot of.  .  people somehow think you know American.  .  exceptionalism which by the way was a.  .  Stalin term American exceptionalism we.  .  build an empire but we had what at the.  .  time was unlimited capacity to move west.  .  and so we had strong immigration.  .  programs because we could populate any.  .  amount of territory and not run out and.  .  now we've hit California right and now.  .  you look at California it's like a.  .  tsunami of craziness building up in.  .  California right and we're piled up out.  .  there.  .  they're doing insane stuff in California.  .  my opinion politically and and socially.  .  and and and and we are at we are now at.  .  the boundary of our expansion now again.  .  we still have a lot of acreage per.  .  capita compared to a lot of countries.  .  and stuff like that but um but we're.  .  also the system veronik right socialism.  .  has totally invaded our thinking right.  .  we've got an entire generation of.  .  younger adults who think socialism sign.  .  right.  .  i I understand where it came from but I.  .  also understand that that it is a system.  .  that has failed without fail right miss.  .  failed every time well let me put my.  .  view in which is I think we were already.  .  running socialism it's just socialism.  .  for the 0.1% that's all right but but.  .  but then but so the 2020 elections is.  .  going to be you know now that's my turn.  .  right the doom that we that I wrote a.  .  lot about modern monetary theory yeah.  .  because it's gonna be about now you're.  .  gonna print money for us and and I.  .  understand their anxiety I've written.  .  hastily about bankers and central.  .  bankers and corruption but the problem.  .  is I go but that's going to cause more.  .  trouble not less that's a problem but.  .  I'm sympathetic to it I agree that it's.  .  gonna cause trouble but I'm sympathetic.  .  to it because yeah young person you say.  .  well gosh you've been printing up money.  .  and handing it out to Jamie Dimon why.  .  not us you know let's just put the fire.  .  hose this way instead of that way it's.  .  our turn III get it right and it's gonna.  .  totally get it it's gonna oh well yeah.  .  it'll sell brilliantly it'll sell.  .  brilliantly because it because there's.  .  truth right.  .  you know if Lizabeth warned by the way.  .  it stayed on let's get the bankers he'd.  .  be the front-runner mm-hmm right yep but.  .  so no I agree with that now before we go.  .  too much further I gotta return to the.  .  title which is his year's Year in Review.  .  is Epstein didn't kill himself which I.  .  am so enjoying the memes like like so.  .  this really broke through I think this.  .  was a seminal thing because it broke.  .  through into the larger consciousness so.  .  I go to all these social media sites.  .  like Reddit and they're usually highly.  .  allergic in a very corporatized way to.  .  conspiracy theories so if you go to like.  .  the the subreddit for news or world news.  .  you know they just poopoo and.  .  immediately shut down anything that.  .  smells like you know mentioning that you.  .  know kerosene can't melt steel or.  .  something like that right so right but.  .  this one broke through cracked by that.  .  yeah this one broke through that you now.  .  find this meme in all these clever ways.  .  of people of spelling out Epstein didn't.  .  kill himself you know in public and.  .  all of that it really broke through.  .  because it was just completely obvious.  .  that he didn't kill himself right grande.  .  totally I'm impossible and almost right.  .  yeah to the nearest integer zero yeah so.  .  you know my my PhD to do the little.  .  background of meets in pathology so I'd.  .  do autopsies we did some stuff we did.  .  some forensic pathology I can tell you.  .  that to break those three hyoid bones.  .  you know I went out and looked online.  .  looked at all of all of the you know.  .  case reviews of that let let me put it.  .  this way if the police showed up in your.  .  wife was found with three broken bones.  .  in her neck you're going to jail for.  .  strangulation because 99.9% chance.  .  that's what happened you know it's just.  .  it's just such a signature injury for.  .  strangulation not a slump hanging off of.  .  a bedpost it's just completely obvious.  .  there is no bedpost in that cell there's.  .  nothing to hang yourself from and that's.  .  all I've read all about the various.  .  aspects of those you know safety cells.  .  and there's no posters no rails there's.  .  nothing there's your sheets tear your.  .  clothes tear you cannot kill yourself in.  .  one of those cells there's no doorknob.  .  there's no nothing huh so take us.  .  through it.  .  you know Elsa so here's the death let me.  .  tell me so so so everything's wrong with.  .  the obscene story right I don't know.  .  where I when I write about it I it was.  .  this the second topic I wrote about and.  .  that's the hierarchical column way and.  .  and and there's the obvious stuff that I.  .  think most people know there's a bunch.  .  of pervs some people know that you know.  .  Epstein was hired by Bill Maher's father.  .  bill birnes father has intelligence.  .  connections right but people don't know.  .  that.  .  Epstein suppose he went to Wall Street.  .  and with no bachelor's degree made a.  .  billion dollars and so you go yeah of.  .  course that's pretty easy to do right no.  .  one on Wall Street knows him right no.  .  one knew him no one could say there's.  .  actually wasn't like Madoff they knew.  .  Madoff right but where does Epstein in a.  .  billion dollars well it turns out he had.  .  one client Leslie Wexner and Wexner has.  .  always Intel.  .  hodgins ties and so as we as you know I.  .  know there's this woman named Whitney.  .  Webb who kind of pulled it all together.  .  where it turns out Epstein was it's been.  .  an asset for intelligence possibly.  .  multiple intelligence agencies for first.  .  entire adult life and and he is you know.  .  it is only Maxwell who i tastelessly.  .  nicknamed jizz she her father was Robert.  .  Maxwell one of the most famous Israeli.  .  spies of all time right and and he fell.  .  off a yacht and died right in the middle.  .  of something that wasn't very tasteful.  .  and and so so so it turns out that the.  .  web does this great job of connecting.  .  Epstein with with this whole idea of the.  .  honey trap the whole idea of of.  .  compromising politicians and.  .  compromising people of power but but.  .  then what you do and this is where.  .  Michael Krieger said something to me.  .  that made really sense is that you don't.  .  blackmail them per se you just give them.  .  more power and so that you you.  .  compromise them but then you pull them.  .  into your fold and then use and by the.  .  way we're going to elevate you we're.  .  going to help you here we're going to.  .  help you there and senator senator so so.  .  where this all connects is that it turns.  .  out that the Mossad has a huge number of.  .  former Mossad agents popular popular in.  .  Silicon Valley it appears to me that.  .  Israel's remarkable tech industry which.  .  they're it's not well known there is.  .  knows a great package that's probably.  .  sort of a hundred percent intelligence.  .  probably a hundred percent you know.  .  national security and and and so there.  .  subroutines being wedged into various.  .  programs stuff like that but hey who'd.  .  Barack is amazingly prominent in in.  .  Silicon Valley and so this whole story.  .  is a story about this this web of.  .  international intrigue after EPSA gets.  .  convicted of pedophilia his his his his.  .  uh his exceedingly prominent of.  .  associates like like Prince Andrew and.  .  Barbara Walters and Stephanopoulos all.  .  these people Charlie Rose they don't.  .  to sodam right I mean if you were a.  .  public figure never seen guy convicted.  .  to pedophilia.  .  you're saying to him hey Jeff sorry I.  .  can't be seen with you now right you're.  .  you're toxic and and he was not and they.  .  sealed up all the cases how do you do.  .  that so so every one of these stories.  .  where every single shred makes no sense.  .  I'm going to disagree with one thing.  .  that you said that is and I get today I.  .  don't think he's dead hmm I think he's.  .  in witness protection because I don't.  .  think you could kill him it's real.  .  simple right if he's been collecting.  .  dirt on powerful people and not getting.  .  assassinated himself which means.  .  therefore he wasn't threatening them.  .  with it right you could killed if you're.  .  threatening people with it and and so.  .  he's got all the certain and he's.  .  sitting in a Cell he's going to say look.  .  get me out of here alive or I release.  .  the hounds right that's how Daniel.  .  Ellsberg released the Pentagon Papers.  .  that's what you do is call the suicide.  .  switch and the guy has been doing this.  .  for 40 years knows what a suicide.  .  switches and so so if you wanted to off.  .  Epstein you couldn't do it because you.  .  trigger a wave of flying across the.  .  globe mmm so you have to protect them.  .  fact the most dangerous thing for them.  .  would be if Epstein got whacked by.  .  someone who wanted that release to occur.  .  that would be the risky thing and so I.  .  think that I think they staged the whole.  .  the whole thing the hyoid bone just.  .  keeps us chattering with they're happy.  .  to have us sing someone off them right.  .  when we throw it on the Clinton.  .  body-count laugh about it right.  .  that's nothing they don't care about.  .  that they don't care about of offing.  .  Epstein in a Cell they care about a.  .  revealing on this massive web of.  .  connectivity that it goes to the church.  .  goes to the Beltway goes to Silicon.  .  Valley goes to Israel goes to everywhere.  .  this is a web of people of power and.  .  influence and its massive and I think.  .  it's the biggest scandal in history and.  .  they are furiously trying to put it away.  .  even Prince Andrews interview disaster.  .  makes no sense that was such a disaster.  .  I don't sweat what was that I don't even.  .  understand what I think I think he had.  .  he.  .  take one for the team but I don't know.  .  how that fits into the plot there's not.  .  that there's no logic in it so until you.  .  can see logic and doing that interview.  .  you you don't understand well here's how.  .  I know just how dirty this whole thing.  .  is it wasn't until I think two months.  .  after he had allegedly killed himself.  .  for a month after that the FBI finally.  .  viz raided his Island you know which was.  .  just sitting there for the whole world.  .  to know about like right and that they.  .  as far as I know they still haven't gone.  .  to his New Mexico ranch right so you.  .  know in what world when you are you know.  .  you have child porn all over the place.  .  and by the way thank you media for.  .  making me so mad at you again because.  .  the media was always with this underaged.  .  women thing yeah we have another name.  .  for that you know child rape kit kids.  .  right underage women God in PR did that.  .  you're an adult petting zoo is what I.  .  call it love I love this slide I put in.  .  the time where he said you know I have.  .  to make fun of it kisses so sad but I.  .  said I have the bed I said boskie plane.  .  de plane and then the Ricardo Montalban.  .  guy responds yes unshackle the girls it.  .  and then there's their stuff like how do.  .  you how do you seal up a civil case in.  .  which the women in the civil case are.  .  saying this guy raped me I know for a.  .  fact that that they that the judge in.  .  that case is by law required to pass.  .  that to the authorities right and they.  .  didn't they sealed it and it was you.  .  know it was this secretary of what was.  .  was it was across the secretary this is.  .  a cabinet member would come yeah.  .  Secretary of Education or something like.  .  that though labor yeah yeah and then he.  .  would he retires he says okay I'm out of.  .  here.  .  yeah and he had admitted that he sealed.  .  the case because Epstein was.  .  intelligence and where's his Elaine.  .  Maxwell right why isn't she being.  .  interrogated why isn't gersowitz under.  .  the hot lamp yeah there's one of the.  .  women in the in the in the in the in the.  .  and the transcript said Dershowitz she.  .  put right into it.  .  yeah and Bill Clinton or no one's.  .  counting any of them a hundred other.  .  people who should all be in and you know.  .  this with him if this was at your in my.  .  paygrade down here you know the FBI.  .  would be having us hauled up and putting.  .  us down under under oath and taking.  .  statements right we're gonna go they're.  .  never gonna do it yeah so so that's why.  .  I think this is such importance because.  .  because it now broke into the public.  .  awareness to the point where people are.  .  getting oh my gosh there's two sets of.  .  rules in play here obviously and of.  .  course we saw you know we always know.  .  that that justice is a two-tiered system.  .  but it's now becoming more obvious and.  .  it's really starting to grate on on.  .  people more and more right you know and.  .  so let me point out one thing I'm not.  .  gonna divulge it and then I don't know.  .  if you got to that part yet or not but.  .  um the question then is well then who.  .  was the dead guy in the gurney and I'm.  .  gonna make your readers read it okay the.  .  dead guy in the gurney there there's a.  .  theory of who he is that's so funny you.  .  will wet yourself when you read it all.  .  right I'm gonna go hunt that down soon.  .  as we're done here because I'm super.  .  interested in that yet you know I saw I.  .  did see the pictures of him allegedly.  .  being wheeled out on the gurney and and.  .  somehow the nose and the ears don't.  .  quite line up and all I could yeah well.  .  there's a guy who whose nose and ears do.  .  line up and you're just gonna whack.  .  yourself when you see who that is and he.  .  died three weeks earlier he died three.  .  weeks earlier cause unknown oh okay.  .  well I had to go through this crazy sort.  .  of thing of like well maybe he died and.  .  you know fell on his face and his nose.  .  in his ears got smooshed I I was like I.  .  couldn't make sense of it cuz they don't.  .  line up with now the him if that's a.  .  real picture anyway so all right well.  .  well speak into this two-tiered thing.  .  you know you were writing on gold.  .  manipulation you wrote that quote two.  .  employees were put on leave while Jamie.  .  Dimon was not nothing ever happens.  .  a prosecutor closed a five-year silver.  .  manipulation case abruptly five days.  .  later he was in private practice.  .  defending the very same JPM metals.  .  manipulators end quote I mean this is.  .  just it is just so blatantly in your.  .  face that mean act it's a corrupt.  .  at this point in time and so you spent.  .  some time sort of chronicling all of it.  .  but it's almost too much to keep up with.  .  at this point really well so that that.  .  again with in finance I think I'm going.  .  to return to the financial topics when.  .  stuff starts happening and when the.  .  system starts breaking again then then.  .  it's going to be pandemonium right now.  .  all I can do is write about things that.  .  just look wrong and I can write about.  .  things that look incredibly risky and I.  .  can write about Howard world record.  .  awfulness in so many ways but the.  .  average person looks at therefore one.  .  can says look I'm up 20 percent this.  .  year right so I just said look go go.  .  read last year's it's gotten worse.  .  that's it yeah yeah it is just getting.  .  worse and worse and of course some of us.  .  just sort of bubble dynamics and you.  .  know I can't figure out when the plug is.  .  going to get pulled on all this I for.  .  one think that the Fed is just.  .  absolutely freaking out I'd like to turn.  .  now to the whole idea of what's going on.  .  with this repo madness and and I think.  .  the best explanation I've heard so far.  .  just came out recently from Martin.  .  Armstrong and he said look nobody.  .  actually really has a clue what's going.  .  on here right now we just know.  .  something's not quite right the easiest.  .  all we needed all you need to know when.  .  the repo markets blowing out is that the.  .  four big banks in control of most of it.  .  aren't interested in lending to other.  .  parties even overnight.  .  that means Trust is broken we don't know.  .  what it is and the cheap seats yet but.  .  to me the Fed is obviously panicking and.  .  either lying about it or being ignorant.  .  about it either way I don't feel.  .  comfortable with any of that stuff what.  .  do you think's going on there well I.  .  wrote a lot about it I listed all the.  .  theories that I've been able to collect.  .  over the year and I put out an APB on.  .  Twitter and I got all sorts of highly.  .  authoritative answers that vary all the.  .  way from zero heads conspiracy theory to.  .  – Hillary – Donald – – Jamie diamond.  .  shaken down Powell.  .  they're just a gazillion things I still.  .  think the best theory and it's the one.  .  that I opened with and then had everyone.  .  tell me I was an idiot is that the.  .  banking system is an emergent system.  .  which means it basically has a mind of.  .  its own and it and and once in awhile it.  .  just goes crazy right it just is it's.  .  like you know when the fish also wash up.  .  on shore by the by the hundreds of.  .  thousands no one knows why that happens.  .  right and and and so everyone so while.  .  the banking system just has a coronary.  .  and I think in this case it's not just.  .  the banking system it's the shadow.  .  banking system I think you're right I.  .  think Powell's terrified and and if he's.  .  not then he really is an idiot but I I'm.  .  suspecting he's terrified and they keep.  .  kind of normalized truly extraordinary.  .  behavior and so this smacks of the.  .  tremor right this smacks of a you know.  .  sort of San Andreas Fault stuff and uh.  .  and they're trying to furiously put it.  .  away they're trying to they're trying to.  .  find a way to calm it down but but you.  .  know if it's metastable it's just a.  .  matter of time right and they say the.  .  banking system stable they say the.  .  banking system took much better shape.  .  because of dodd-frank bla bla bla bla.  .  bla I go okay right now thirty-nine.  .  percent according to gun lock.  .  thirty-nine percent of corporate debt is.  .  chunk now I'm not sure he's saying this.  .  rated junk but he says his garbage and.  .  he had to leverage low markets but.  .  thirty nine percent of corporate debt is.  .  junk and and when that chunk goes bid.  .  'less how's the banking system going to.  .  be doing well there's that and there's.  .  all the cuff light and leveraged loans.  .  which don't give him a lot of attention.  .  I'm crap I'm it's just super crap it's.  .  super garbage yep and we had the BIS.  .  last year come out and say hey not for.  .  nothing maybe you should pay attention.  .  but one in eight companies is a zombie.  .  meaning they can't even write their.  .  operational cash flows don't even cover.  .  the interest payments so they have to.  .  keep tapping that that endless credit.  .  market you know to to keep the bid going.  .  and so that's what I think the Fed is.  .  trying to do here is just make sure that.  .  the credit markets are always sampling.  .  supplied but the longer they do that the.  .  more junk piles up and so we haven't had.  .  a brushfire and I think we're facing an.  .  Australian crown fire at this point you.  .  know if anything does get started and.  .  they don't want anything to get started.  .  so everything has to keep going up it's.  .  just such a ridiculous system why do you.  .  think the BIS is so honest.  .  the BIA seems to be the only source of.  .  of none.  .  ochio like pronouncements it's a.  .  fascinating question you then they the.  .  kind of the bank of bags right there.  .  they're kind of at the top of the food.  .  chain they should be in some sense the.  .  Dark Lord's right but but they come out.  .  say stuff you go whoa whoa that should.  .  scare people.  .  right yeah I agree I agree some of the.  .  best papers I've read came out of the.  .  BIS including you know one that they.  .  said that talked about openly the the.  .  ways in which banks central banks can.  .  hide their tracks so that they can more.  .  effectively manipulate currencies.  .  because bla bla bla bla using proxy.  .  agents like they laid the whole thing.  .  out like you know these are the things.  .  we've studied that work well and so I'm.  .  thinking if you know the central bank's.  .  a decade ago we're using proxy agents.  .  such as JP Morgan at all to go out and.  .  manipulate currency markets.  .  what other markets would you think are.  .  off-limits to central banks who decide.  .  that they is a small unelected cabal of.  .  people know best what the prices of.  .  stocks on to be gold currencies I mean.  .  everything I mean I think they feel like.  .  they're responsible for setting the.  .  prices of everything without studying.  .  history and discovering that price.  .  setting is not usually an optimal way to.  .  go right it's it's it's the way the.  .  Soviets try right the Soviets set prices.  .  right and the Fed thinks they're in.  .  charge of setting prices.  .  the Soviets actually were trying to.  .  cheat because what they were doing is.  .  setting the price is watching us prices.  .  and saying okay we'll just we'll just.  .  covertly just set our potato rates at.  .  the same as the US then and therefore we.  .  can kind of fake it and uh and and not.  .  recognizing that will maybe potatoes in.  .  Russia are the same price right that.  .  maybe the supply demand curves different.  .  so it didn't work right but now you have.  .  the central bank they think they're in.  .  charge of climate change they think.  .  they're in charge of ah they think.  .  they're in charge of brexit they think.  .  they're charged then you got that step.  .  back you wacky wacky bill Dudley memo.  .  they did he wrote a former head of the.  .  New York Fed right write some memo right.  .  to an op-ed in The New York Times saying.  .  that to the extent that the president's.  .  risk to the economy it's it's it's the.  .  feds jurisdiction to worry about his.  .  president that was extraordinary and and.  .  then in the Wall Street Journal came out.  .  wrote this up and said holy cow this.  .  guy's trying to tell us that the Fed is.  .  politically independent and then Dudley.  .  writes that the Wall Street Journal was.  .  absolutely unambiguous in their shock.  .  the Dudley would right there and then.  .  Dudley backed up he says this is not.  .  about the deep state this is just my.  .  opinion there's no cabal there's and I'm.  .  going to dude thou doth protest too much.  .  right so the questions why did he do it.  .  why did he do it why did Mark Carney.  .  talk about the dollar losing reserve.  .  currency service why did why did Dudley.  .  talk about about you know throwing the.  .  president what is going on because they.  .  don't yeah it's how oddly buttered it on.  .  stage like jboden.  .  Dudley edited an op-ed yeah which was.  .  vetted you sure up and down the street.  .  and uestion is you you say you're the.  .  feds job is to make sure we have the.  .  right president what is stunning our bed.  .  from a former New York Fed president.  .  2018 that's a doddering old fool well.  .  you might be an old fool but he 2018.  .  when you step down yeah this is fresh.  .  stuff ya know it's it's it's clear the.  .  feds wildly political obviously and.  .  they've they've you know whatever that.  .  nose of the camera went under the.  .  proverbial tent the Fed has been getting.  .  more and more and more active and.  .  interventionist and sort of I get the.  .  sense that they feel like they're in.  .  charge of everything they're responsible.  .  for setting all prices and that they.  .  know what they should be higher usually.  .  and and they've been absolutely immune.  .  so I'm on this one-man campaign on.  .  Twitter to try and you know bash the Fed.  .  now I know I have a little bit of quite.  .  a few fellow travelers on a 2-man at.  .  least right but here's what I mean why.  .  does not one journalist say mr. Powell.  .  your policies are directly fostering a.  .  wealth gap right now five people have as.  .  much wealth as half the world we're.  .  wondering where's the line where do you.  .  stop is it when those five pieces and I.  .  own a hundred percent I didn't know how.  .  can they they you're not allowed to deny.  .  something that's like that's the Ted.  .  Bundy denying what he was up to you.  .  can't you know the evidence is there is.  .  plain as day you you print money and you.  .  shovel it.  .  to the markets and it goes you might as.  .  well wire it directly into the point one.  .  percents bank accounts right you might.  .  as well so he's responsible for that and.  .  why does nobody ask him the most simple.  .  of questions which is you are playing.  .  with social fire here you are burning.  .  people you're a redistributive.  .  organization you don't create wealth but.  .  you do print up purchasing power which.  .  means it came from somewhere where did.  .  that come from.  .  Oh everybody else and you handed it to.  .  who these guys here's what would happen.  .  you know what would happen first of all.  .  he would never expose himself to a real.  .  interrogation right it would all be.  .  orchestrated if he was ever for example.  .  giving a speech somewhere and they had a.  .  you know let's take questions which I.  .  don't think you would ever do but if.  .  someone said that he would then give an.  .  answer that was some canned answer like.  .  you know we've got lowest unemployment.  .  the little guys been helped by Fed.  .  policy you know what they'd say mm-hmm.  .  right and then you would not get the mic.  .  back and therefore that would be the.  .  final word that's the problem you need a.  .  scenario where he says it and then you.  .  come back you say no you're full of crap.  .  for these three reasons please clarify.  .  and he won't expose himself to that and.  .  if you were a journalist you ask that.  .  question of course he would never be.  .  invited back and you'd be out exactly.  .  you'd be out that's journalism is the.  .  problem yeah yeah remember it was Janet.  .  Yellen who you canned I think it was.  .  Pedro de Costa just kandan because he.  .  dared to ask a question about some.  .  insider junk that was not cool we're an.  .  outside firm was getting early.  .  intelligence from the Fed and he tried.  .  corn or Janet Yellen with that and she.  .  just turned away from being the kind.  .  grandmotherly persona into into an Iron.  .  Lady all of a sudden that was it he was.  .  out doesn't so I ran a free Pedro.  .  Twitter campaign that dapsone out of.  .  that and I set up a free and I kept all.  .  day long I just venomous tweet free.  .  Pedro blah blah blah you you skanks you.  .  know I just a dork I've so mad and then.  .  and then at night I got an email from.  .  Pedro and he said you know that was.  .  really meaningful to me I appreciate you.  .  doing that and uh and and so but he's.  .  now not asking fed questions right he.  .  lost his job he quit I think because he.  .  got so what happened was after that.  .  was was was the free Pedro campaign was.  .  when the next Fed meeting occurred the.  .  head of the Wall Street Journal the.  .  other Wall Street Journal walked into.  .  Pedro's offices you're not going and.  .  Pedro said why he said you're not going.  .  and so the the Wall Street Journal got.  .  told de castas not allowed that's when I.  .  stood the free Pedro he then set into.  .  motion I even I think that day to quit I.  .  think he's at the Peterson Institute or.  .  something now but he he was so mad you.  .  know and in any event yeah and and I.  .  mean he's not even the most militant but.  .  but but you can't do that right you're.  .  now challenging the elite power.  .  structure you're challenging the people.  .  who the one thing they all agree if they.  .  all want to be powerful still they want.  .  to retain their power they want to be.  .  elite by the way here's here's a thought.  .  on the UM the retaining elite is I do.  .  not want to talk about impeachment with.  .  the exception of one thing if that to me.  .  the smoking gun in the impeachment trial.  .  was Sandland was one and the reasons.  .  that Sandlin de San London in the.  .  morning gave a speech that basically.  .  said Trump and all his buddies are all.  .  guilty as guilty can be if you listen to.  .  speech I heard it I heard it I was.  .  driving somewhere I was on a trip or.  .  something and I heard it I go wow that.  .  guy just Al Trump and then in the.  .  afternoon on cross-examination he said I.  .  don't know anything I didn't hear.  .  anything I didn't see anything I just.  .  presumed it the guy was lying that the.  .  guy was lying either in the morning or.  .  at night right in the afternoon there's.  .  no chance that that same person gave.  .  those two so so if you or CNN person you.  .  heard him hammer Trump if you were a fox.  .  person you heard him declare that he.  .  knows nothing and it was the same guy.  .  and I'm going how is that possible and.  .  then I realized here's the smoking gun.  .  he gave the two sides their talking.  .  points and so the Democrats could say.  .  blah blah blah the Republicans could say.  .  blah blah blah and and and neither.  .  talking about him committing perjury.  .  they.  .  each got their talking points and the.  .  reasons because they all agree whether.  .  it's whether it's shift or whether it's.  .  Jordan they want to be reelected yeah.  .  and they got their talking points.  .  there's no way someone's testimony makes.  .  sense by a normal model I think he gave.  .  of the two sides with it's like the.  .  Muller report right the Muller report.  .  came out and said not guilty then put.  .  this stuff in and so both sides screamed.  .  about how how they won mala rapport with.  .  head it's like you know the classic.  .  you'll be lucky to get this person to.  .  work for you line right Mahler handed.  .  both team something to talk about yeah.  .  what a travesty that report that was.  .  though and I mean two and a half years.  .  generally it was a I think he found.  .  nothing I think the report generally.  .  came to the conclusion that there was.  .  nothing there and now you know there's.  .  Horowitz report stuff so so so said yeah.  .  Trump is anti fragile.  .  every time he they attack him and heat.  .  they don't bring him down he gets.  .  stronger so if you're a Trump hater this.  .  should bother you to no end because he.  .  is like the guy with the glowing eyes.  .  and Star Trek right he is getting.  .  stronger and stronger every time they.  .  fail to bring him down well I'm just I'm.  .  a little bit shocked that the so-called.  .  deep state so you got clapper Brennan.  .  all those people they're just openly.  .  openly lying about stuff call me and.  .  then nothing happens you remember was.  .  under Brennan I think that you know the.  .  CIA even got caught like hacking into.  .  Senate staffers laptops I mean domestic.  .  spying worst of the worst he lied about.  .  it in front of an open committee and.  .  then later it turned out that he had.  .  been lying and nothing happened he's.  .  still he's still you know an eminent.  .  person and I have to watch him on CNN.  .  from time to time and it's just it's.  .  astonishing to me the level of brazen.  .  rule breaking law breaking criminality.  .  that can exist at that level with with.  .  nothing no consequences so here's what's.  .  happening so if you go to MIT the.  .  conclusion of my annual write-up I go.  .  super dark alright let's take the tool.  .  all of this I go through all of this.  .  even though I didn't write about it all.  .  because because and I.  .  talk about the digital the digital.  .  gulags that they're setting up you know.  .  I'm really bothered yeah sort of like my.  .  lowly innopolis who's a hateable guy I.  .  find him fascinating but I understand.  .  why people hate him I certainly why the.  .  left hates him profoundly but they've.  .  been able to erase him so he has he this.  .  guy was able to find microphones.  .  everywhere they have erased him from the.  .  public forum they took him off Twitter.  .  they took my facebook they took him off.  .  everything because they didn't want him.  .  there anymore.  .  and they took off Gavin McInnes who by.  .  the way was nowhere near as polarizing.  .  as that he was made out to be he's gone.  .  he got vaporized you know and they blew.  .  Roger stone who by he's hittable from.  .  both sides in my opinion but but but but.  .  but you you can't boot them right the.  .  next person who boot will be you mm-hmm.  .  because they'll say but your opinions.  .  are not worthy I got oh I got in that.  .  thing where they booted my YouTube I did.  .  a qtr podcast and they YouTube booted it.  .  now I didn't give a damn it's like so.  .  what well good you had many feathers in.  .  your cap this year and I think getting.  .  banned off of youtube that's one of them.  .  that was great but they're a bunch of.  .  Nazis and by the way YouTube's changing.  .  and people I really people noticed.  .  YouTube has these new rules and says you.  .  know the little guys if they're not.  .  earning enough money we can boot them.  .  right mm-hmm.  .  you know that means that it's gone it's.  .  corporate though it's not the word you.  .  no longer matters the word you is gone.  .  so if you I know there's videos that.  .  used to be on YouTube if you search them.  .  you can't find them what you can find.  .  our news stories to have the video.  .  innama but their corporate news stories.  .  and so YouTube is no longer about you.  .  this is this is this is this is an.  .  encroaching Stalinism I really don't.  .  think I'm being hyperbolic here it's.  .  just ism.  .  it's corporatism I don't think it's just.  .  that though because this is speech now.  .  you know talk through digital right we.  .  communicate through digital we don't.  .  write letters to the editor anymore we.  .  go to.  .  Facebook we go to youtube we got a we.  .  get we got a Twitter and the fact that.  .  they can I you know through the years.  .  right Standard Oil Exxon US Steel you.  .  know all the major industries they were.  .  powerful right they built an empire but.  .  they were powerful never did I feel like.  .  they controlled me and and these new.  .  companies control me it's not that they.  .  know everything about me I've long since.  .  given up on that nor do they control me.  .  here's a story that I tell in China and.  .  if you if it's in China now don't think.  .  it's not going to make it here in China.  .  they're talking to a couple of expats.  .  they're saying tell us about life in.  .  China gods really know Obama one then.  .  one guy says well you know because of.  .  all the cameras and facial recognition.  .  the other day I crossed the road and by.  .  the time I stepped on the curb I got a.  .  text message that said you just.  .  jaywalked.  .  we've deducted this much from your bank.  .  account mm-hmm I don't want to live in.  .  that world you know that's that's I.  .  don't want to live in a world where if.  .  you do 31 and a 30 you get deducted from.  .  your bank account I don't want to live.  .  in a world where where they can catch.  .  you doing anything right we're all.  .  married right we've got someone watching.  .  over our shoulder enough we don't need.  .  we we don't need a digital overseer.  .  overlord I want to get have to get.  .  caught I don't I don't want Volvos.  .  putting out a car that monitors your.  .  driving if they perceive your driving is.  .  distracted they alert the authorities I.  .  will never buy a Volvo if that's the.  .  case but then the other cars will do it.  .  this is beta testing yeah I don't this.  .  is horrifying to me we give up civil.  .  liberties one at a time cash right they.  .  want to get rid of cash I did add Kaiser.  .  report the other day and I was unaware.  .  this he says Michael Hudson thinks.  .  they're going to take Newark they're.  .  gonna take negative interest rates too.  .  before this is done negative 25 percent.  .  I said it will be a cataclysm if they.  .  take interest rates to negative 25.  .  percent right.  .  that that will be and and what's.  .  happening in the world right now.  .  violence is trending that's the problem.  .  violence is trending how many countries.  .  in the world are there other violent.  .  protests doesn't mm-hmm Hong Kong's get.  .  in the press but Portland organist is.  .  always flaring up that the yellow dress.  .  in France this is this is first world a.  .  third world yep violence is trending at.  .  some point the people say now I've had.  .  enough and once it starts how do you.  .  stop it.  .  not only is currency Fiat but government.  .  is fear the government declares they are.  .  in charge until the people say oh no.  .  you're not and then they've got a.  .  problem yeah and and they're really uh.  .  you know of one of my little quips.  .  yesterday on Twitter was I said if.  .  band-aids could cure cancer I'd be.  .  totally behind what the feds up to right.  .  we have these structural issues that.  .  that papering over with another half.  .  trillion of liquidity before year-end.  .  just just can't address you know and.  .  this is the part that I think is leading.  .  to so much of the stress and and some of.  .  it we can just look this always happens.  .  in the in all of the ancient religious.  .  texts they had this concept of a jubilee.  .  and if they had debt based systems where.  .  you know there was interest involved.  .  they understood that over time.  .  compounding systems get away from you so.  .  what was a Jubilee it was seven periods.  .  of seven that's 49 years mmm and that's.  .  about how long it takes before a.  .  compounding system really gets away from.  .  you and here we are approaching nearly.  .  the fiftieth year of of coming off the.  .  gold standard it's been a fun ride but.  .  look what's happened right we are now.  .  entrenched in a system where we are.  .  compounding our debts at more than twice.  .  the rate of income growth even on a.  .  nominal basis let alone real there's.  .  nothing you can do about that except to.  .  keep lowering rates so you get to zero.  .  and then you have to get stupid and say.  .  well maybe we just go into negative.  .  territory is if is if that waves a.  .  linear extrapolation of what we've been.  .  up to but everything goes wonky in.  .  negative territory because it doesn't.  .  make sense.  .  because fundamentally it says the out.  .  productive output of your excess surplus.  .  is is has a negative value right what.  .  what kind of right how do I make sense.  .  of that.  .  I don't even know what to do with that.  .  time I didn't timers have negative value.  .  too right so time is available.  .  why would I lend someone money to get.  .  less back by the way there's a gun in my.  .  dream explain who's buying all the.  .  negative interest rate bombs in a clip.  .  and I said who's buying those things.  .  right and it turns out that these bond.  .  funds are set up just like equity funds.  .  where they're sort of market cap.  .  weighted and so the city set the equity.  .  funds that the fangs just get bigger.  .  bigger bigger proportion because the.  .  higher their price the bigger their.  .  market cap more money to something to.  .  those shares and so you get this.  .  virtuous cycle off which will become a.  .  vicious cycle out the bumpers do the.  .  same thing and so apparently as as the.  .  bond you know approach zero and the the.  .  the price of the bond goes up apparently.  .  what's your cross zero it goes finance.  .  so yeah this negative interest rates are.  .  just insane and and that was a really.  .  big story coming in through the middle.  .  of last year seems to have come back a.  .  little bit but I mean yeah we're still.  .  talking ten trillion a negative yielding.  .  interest rates so I want to get to the.  .  conclusion of all this though because I.  .  do believe in this fourth turning aspect.  .  and I think where you went is where my.  .  mind and heart has gone which is to say.  .  that there's it's gonna get darker.  .  before it gets better and that's just.  .  trend extrapolation for me because the.  .  people I have I have to confess I have.  .  lost friends or former friends who have.  .  who have taken on emotional views that I.  .  can't I just can't follow and I see this.  .  gap getting wider and wider and wider.  .  between the various parties and in my.  .  mind I now actually begin to understand.  .  something that I was reading this.  .  article by this Colonel who whose job.  .  was to foment civil wars and.  .  insurrection in various countries you.  .  know welcome to the Empire it ain't.  .  right.  .  they have this whole model and they.  .  characterized and they said look there's.  .  eight things that you we would do or.  .  that you would need to see before you.  .  could reliably you know get a get some.  .  sort of a civil war started or an.  .  insurrection going and and he said his.  .  concern was he saw.  .  the United States had six out of that.  .  eight and I think with this new.  .  polarization we're seeing I think we're.  .  up to seven so I'm beginning to.  .  understand you know I think we already.  .  have an intellectual civil war but I'm.  .  beginning to understand how sides can.  .  become so entrenched and separate in.  .  their views that there really is no.  .  reconciliation available until some sort.  .  of catharsis is that where you're you.  .  were sort of heading with all this yeah.  .  yeah and and you know when you're.  .  watching a video and some guys are.  .  beating the tired of antifa and you're.  .  rooting for them you realize that you've.  .  jumped on the train and and and so you.  .  know as I was watch the guys scream at.  .  shift which I'm the one in a highly.  .  sympathetic to him I was more alert to.  .  this and I said you know Dave if you're.  .  rooting for these guys and you're kind.  .  of rooting for this armed and direction.  .  approach to to life and and and I think.  .  we're going there and it will not work.  .  well right it never does revolutions.  .  never work out for the little guy.  .  they're always sold to you as as you.  .  know we the proletariat we the we that.  .  we the people are going to take back our.  .  government and then guess why you just.  .  hand it to it to a dictator it never.  .  works well except with the exception of.  .  things like the American Revolution or.  .  shaking off shackles from across the.  .  pond but civil wars don't work out well.  .  at all right right so well yeah that's.  .  right that's where my brain is headed.  .  totally yeah and there's really no.  .  resolution I don't think to the sort of.  .  financial mess we've gotten ourselves.  .  into or the fiscal mess or the monetary.  .  mess you know and all of these things.  .  just feel like what we did here's my.  .  larger view look we right around 1913 is.  .  when we came up with this brilliant idea.  .  that we could just sort of like hey well.  .  just do this really really entrench this.  .  fractional reserve thing that's right.  .  about the time oil was coming online and.  .  then it all worked magically but.  .  correlation is not causation and it just.  .  happened to be that we were.  .  coincidentally going into deeper and.  .  deeper into debt as we had more and more.  .  of this tasty tasty fuel to do things.  .  with it was a lot of fun but now that.  .  that sort of nosed over and by the way.  .  conventional oil peaked.  .  years ago and we're replacing it with.  .  this ultra expensive stuff that by the.  .  way doesn't pencil out economically you.  .  know every every shell company I follow.  .  us losing money and has already burned a.  .  quarter trillion dollars it is not.  .  coming back out of the ground we can.  .  throw more money in holes in the ground.  .  but that's a different story so so now.  .  we're at this awkward part of the story.  .  where we have this entire entrenched.  .  system of constant exponential growth of.  .  money and credit and claims and we don't.  .  have a system that can they can.  .  accommodate that in the real world so.  .  it's really a human derived fantasy.  .  model which is fun because it gets to.  .  entrench power and you know it you know.  .  it's great and the reality of the world.  .  which is oh we're you know it can't it.  .  just can't can't support that level of.  .  growth anymore.  .  combined with the idea that China and.  .  India together are coming online to.  .  bring forward a billion middle-class.  .  people to more than Eclipse the entire.  .  middle classes of both Europe in the.  .  United States and their demand on.  .  resources that's the story I I really.  .  see as shaping up coming forward and.  .  nobody knows how to make sense of that.  .  and you know the status quo is just busy.  .  trying to pretend as if you know we can.  .  just persist that to me is the conflict.  .  our narrative doesn't doesn't work.  .  anymore just doesn't work oh I saw some.  .  crazy stat I'm going to make it up this.  .  is not true but it was something like if.  .  that if the country of we'll call.  .  country X produce no you know produce no.  .  co2 let's you see a – is a proxy for.  .  economics right in to the extent that.  .  energy burns the economy you burn energy.  .  to grow to grow the economy the the.  .  country acts if it put out no co2 that.  .  that would be the equivalent of what.  .  China puts out in ten minutes.  .  so some crazy stat like that and and so.  .  so so the the the the tragedy of the.  .  Commons is taking place on a gargantuan.  .  scale as India and China do what we are.  .  attempting to for better for worse.  .  whether logic or not reverse well this.  .  has been one of my chief critiques about.  .  about the climate change movement is.  .  that you know I read these articles to.  .  say you know we need to be zero carbon.  .  by 2030 or 2050 right.  .  I just pencil that out and I say cool.  .  just tell me which half of the people.  .  you think should die because we can't.  .  feed them Yeah right or or or or 90%.  .  right well 99 or you know you know which.  .  are you know how many which 10th 9 out.  .  of 10 jobs should go away I mean it's.  .  just the idea that that will just sort.  .  of comport ourselves by other means.  .  because we've decided that we should be.  .  able to use wind towers still still.  .  still misses the fact that if you watch.  .  a wind tower getting put up and you see.  .  the hundred thousand pounds of concrete.  .  and steel go into the base and then you.  .  see that the giant Tower go up in the.  .  nacelle and all the all the blades.  .  there's fossil fuels on every single one.  .  of those components just dripping off.  .  can you get that back or not from a wind.  .  towers is it energy negative no matter.  .  what I don't know because we have no.  .  closed-loop system that says we entirely.  .  use the energy from a wind tower to mine.  .  and produce all the components my my.  .  guess is a lot in life you can count.  .  that one well I would if they being.  .  counted I don't know how you would.  .  actually so it's just such a hyper.  .  complex interconnected system like where.  .  do you draw the lines in that study.  .  right like rocks.  .  chipping the stop and everything right.  .  yeah the sandwiches it's a trucker eight.  .  or did sandwich come from you know how.  .  about the roads that they drove on what.  .  were those made out of so for your.  .  listener I put in thirty two pages into.  .  climate change hmm and and and I'm not.  .  qualified to evaluate climate change.  .  right you have to be wildly broadly read.  .  and you have to be incredibly smart and.  .  diverse and a polymath and everything.  .  else under the Sun and then spend 10,000.  .  hours but what I what I've tried to do.  .  is to it to adjudicate it like maybe.  .  like a judge would adjudicate a case.  .  where they're not really qualified.  .  either but they just listen the two.  .  sides argue and then say okay here's my.  .  decision and the climate change story is.  .  a very complex one one thing what I can.  .  guarantee you is the you're being lied.  .  to in a profound way in the climate.  .  change story there's just so there's so.  .  much fibbing so much politics there's.  .  there's so many things there's so many.  .  vested interests it's not just Exxon.  .  there's vested interest.  .  600 billion dollars is being put per.  .  year into climate change 600 billion.  .  dollars if you being counted across all.  .  the different stuff and so.  .  hypothetically let's say climate change.  .  turns out to be a dud right I don't.  .  doubt the year model which by the way we.  .  first met years and years ago but we.  .  first started communicating you were.  .  probably a third of the way through the.  .  crash course I remember you're going.  .  Jesus I'm going to listen to this I go I.  .  think they will but but I'm a big.  .  resource depletion Hawk and things like.  .  that I totally agree with everything you.  .  say about the pollution the plastics we.  .  don't need to pack everything in plastic.  .  what kind of garbage you know to call is.  .  that everything comes in plastic you.  .  know and and but but I don't think the.  .  climate is going to be our problem.  .  that's my conclusion and and if climate.  .  changes a dud here's the problem here's.  .  the biggest conflict of interest of them.  .  all if it's a dud that 600 billion goes.  .  poof right that's 600 billion.  .  departments on campuses agencies and.  .  governments subsidies for for various.  .  kinds of energy which I support various.  .  kinds of energy I love the tech I love.  .  this except for Facebook and and and I.  .  support doing all that but but but the.  .  push goes poof if climate change turns.  .  out to be a dud what are the odds of.  .  climate change is going to be a dud by.  .  that model the answer is zero they're.  .  not going to let 600 billion dollars go.  .  poof it's too important and so they're.  .  going to lie their ass off and here as a.  .  scientist and you're a scientist too as.  .  a scientist I watched the arguments i.  .  watch for emotional arguments i watch.  .  for database arguments i watch for i.  .  watch for plots that are rigging date.  .  and will plots that are cherry-picking.  .  start points and stuff like that it.  .  appears to me that the climate change.  .  crowd are the frauds.  .  I'm the deniers I'm not picking up the.  .  lies out of the deniers I'm not picking.  .  up the conflicts out of the deniers at.  .  all and I spent a lot of time and I.  .  could be wrong.  .  – really I haven't read a lot of the.  .  primary papers right all I've done is.  .  looked at the arguments as though we're.  .  a Harvard debate club right but but the.  .  specious arguments are coming out of the.  .  changers the ones are I can point to and.  .  say that's crap right there that's crap.  .  yeah and and and I read plots for a.  .  living right my day is staring at plots.  .  mm-hmm and trying to tease information.  .  out of them and when I see when I got oh.  .  man that is just a chart crime right.  .  there yeah well you're a scientist I'm a.  .  scientist so we've spent a lot of time.  .  looking at these things and we.  .  understand that that scientists are.  .  people and that cherry-picking data is.  .  very easy to do and confirmation bias is.  .  a thing and so you're as a scientist I'm.  .  more skeptical of science than most.  .  people I think right particularly yeah.  .  but typically in areas where I know.  .  there's vested interest so you want to.  .  get me started on something like any any.  .  sort of like healthcare study you know.  .  I'm just immediately suspicious like oh.  .  you know we we analyzed 17,000 kids and.  .  discover that there's no negative.  .  correlation – to screen time you know.  .  put your you know I know like yeah I.  .  need to know who funded that study it is.  .  so easy to screw up one of those studies.  .  – impulse by God polls oh my god are.  .  they corruptible and things like that so.  .  yeah yeah you really here's the thing.  .  that's so frustrating to me is you can.  .  reach a point where you believe nobody.  .  and you literally believe nobody and.  .  Daniel Ellsberg warned Kissinger of that.  .  when Kissinger was about to get top.  .  security clearance.  .  Ellsberg said Henry you're about to see.  .  stuff that's going to amaze you you're.  .  gonna be elated and then you're going to.  .  be talking to some guy who thinks he.  .  knows he was talking about but he.  .  doesn't know you know and then you're.  .  gonna realize that he is wrong because.  .  he doesn't know what you know and then.  .  you're gonna stop listening to people.  .  and then you're gonna be a bonehead.  .  [Laughter].  .  that's pretty smart I like that and I'm.  .  afraid of reaching a point where someone.  .  will say well here's a study I go I.  .  don't believe it Yeah right and that's a.  .  dangerous place – but I'm getting close.  .  to that the whole climate thing is.  .  so I've never seen such a profound.  .  conflict of interest and it's not X ugh.  .  I said step X on doesn't need to be.  .  conflicted because you and I both know.  .  that they're going to sell what I bought.  .  whatever oil they can get out of the.  .  ground right yeah they're not gonna.  .  they're not going to not be able to hock.  .  oil their spirit.  .  wind wind power is not going to compete.  .  with Exxon they're not afraid of.  .  hydroelectric they're not afraid of.  .  geothermal because they know there's the.  .  best game in town by a mile as long as.  .  by the way I read exons 1980 here's one.  .  for ya I ran exed the 1982 report on.  .  climate change.  .  yeah yes did you pick up the one line.  .  that was important in there where they.  .  mentioned that that in the worst-case.  .  scenario so I thought it was a brilliant.  .  report I thought it was incredibly.  .  scholarly balanced and there's at all.  .  this is evidence X I knew that climate.  .  change was a prop ago no they were.  .  evaluating the published literature.  .  publicly published literature and trying.  .  to figure out what it all means but.  .  there was one line and it caught my tent.  .  I'm going oh that's a Chris Martenson.  .  moment here they said in the worst case.  .  scenario the co2 problem could become a.  .  problem before resource depletion and.  .  I'm going I think that's the first time.  .  I've seen a big oil company referred to.  .  they're running out of resource you.  .  probably have heard it you probably.  .  heard it as you know these guys yes so I.  .  was I served on this UN panel for a.  .  while there was a gentleman there who.  .  was a former president of US shale and.  .  there's a couple years ago when Peak Oil.  .  is dead Peak Oil is dead you know the.  .  media's just drunk oh my god okay what.  .  do you think about Peak Oil he goes all.  .  a totally real.  .  like we're in the business of looking.  .  for oil trust me we know we know exactly.  .  how hard it is to find and we've scoured.  .  every inch of the globe and and there's.  .  a few basins where we think we there's a.  .  little left over in Africa and maybe.  .  down to South America but but it's.  .  pretty well punched through right so for.  .  somebody who's in the biz there's no.  .  question about what's happening none.  .  whatsoever.  .  at the bottom of the Gulf of Mexico.  .  cow to get oil if it's easy to get right.  .  that is the bottom line your deer you're.  .  squeezing the last drops out of a sponge.  .  right and boy this is a long time back.  .  when we're when when it was all about.  .  Hubbert's P and Matt Simmons and boy boy.  .  that seems like an eternity ago the.  .  picot I was actually getting the.  .  attention now it's calm because they.  .  found a way to frack us back into oil.  .  and as you've said a million times the.  .  fracking wells don't last and the fields.  .  are getting drained now is it possible.  .  that there's there's there's shale type.  .  oil all over the planet that we haven't.  .  discovered is it possible that stuff.  .  exists yeah they're in very different.  .  price we may know about a few of those.  .  basins right and there's the vaca muerta.  .  in Argentina it looks pretty good.  .  Russia's got a pretty big play that.  .  looks pretty good so it's there you know.  .  in China but it but it's it's not.  .  unexplored as a point no when identified.  .  in your opinion pretty good sense of it.  .  at this point in time but you know we'll.  .  probably find some more I still think.  .  Africa is probably the last big prize.  .  because I don't think it's been sort of.  .  picked over the way everything every.  .  other play says I mean Africa's huge.  .  right it's like basically the size of.  .  all the other continents you care about.  .  in one you know and so now 50 years from.  .  now what's happening are we have we.  .  somehow bridge to some energy or are we.  .  gonna be living in a smaller footprint.  .  I'm going with smaller footprint on this.  .  one because you know it it's the the.  .  amount of energy it would take to.  .  develop ourselves so here's David Dylan.  .  here's where I would suddenly become.  .  hopeful instead of pretty cynical if.  .  suddenly you know our government came.  .  out and said hey look we got a lot of.  .  oil cuz you know we can still frack some.  .  more but it's not infinite we think.  .  there's X quantity we need X minus y to.  .  just build out towards this new future.  .  and that's what we're using it for so.  .  you know this new future is gonna be.  .  more local more electrified yada yada.  .  probably looks a little bit like Europe.  .  with their green belts and cities and.  .  all that stuff right or whatever but at.  .  least there's a plan to say we think.  .  it's going to take an allotment of.  .  energy to build a new thing a new system.  .  and we.  .  use it for that and then the rest of it.  .  go ahead you know put it in your f-150.  .  and take your kid an hour away to soccer.  .  practice right have at it.  .  but this a lot bent over here is for.  .  getting us into this new future but.  .  we're not doing that yeah so you use the.  .  seed corn to plant seeds yeah yeah and.  .  so they lose out so can we do this can.  .  we transition without hitting the nukes.  .  we can write we can I don't know it.  .  seems to I think we got it.  .  do the nukes and the problem is as I see.  .  it for us the local boys is that we're.  .  not going to hit the nukes fast yeah in.  .  China a place like that are well if we.  .  get the thorium reactors going I'd be.  .  even more hopeful China India working on.  .  it pretty hard that that seems like a.  .  pretty decent fuel cycle I've.  .  investigated that a bunch and the lifter.  .  reactors that that that there is there.  .  is something there but again you'd have.  .  to get started on it right now so here's.  .  my predictions for the United States.  .  we're not gonna get started anything.  .  we're gonna pretend like we can just.  .  keep driving our f150 s and Tahoe's and.  .  all that other stuff and then then there.  .  is a crisis right somehow and we all go.  .  oh gosh now we're short on energy but.  .  guess what that's a bad time to start.  .  trying to make your plans right because.  .  it that'll make your island right there.  .  we cut down the last tree yeah at that.  .  moment you know you you you have this.  .  towering pile of debt which was all.  .  predicated on an infinite future and.  .  something that's revealed as a fantasy.  .  and so your entire financial system goes.  .  into disarray which means I think coming.  .  up with a giant capital intensive very.  .  technologically interwoven build project.  .  that's larger than anything we've ever.  .  undertaken that's a you know crisis is a.  .  bad time to sort of envision and execute.  .  something like that that's how I look at.  .  it I totally agree but the problem is.  .  we're so close to a financial crisis now.  .  that we may we may be way way way past.  .  the failsafe on yeah we we don't have 50.  .  trillion left in us in my opinion mhm.  .  to do this without doing some serious.  .  damage to the dollar into the to the.  .  economy and all sorts of stuff III just.  .  don't see it I think we've got all these.  .  unfunded liabilities that we have to pay.  .  or or face the consequences of and.  .  they're they're enormous or.  .  fantastically enormous on the pensions.  .  are all underfunded at the top of a.  .  bubble in them that the Social Security.  .  is a disaster we promise so much medical.  .  help for everyone that it's now.  .  profoundly expensive by the way you know.  .  is making a fortune in this and this.  .  medical thing you mentioned it I've been.  .  trying to find a where all the money's.  .  bleeding mm-hmm and I've made the.  .  argument I think in your podcast before.  .  that if you actually look at the firemen.  .  they're profitable but but but.  .  collectively the big ones you don't you.  .  can't find unsightly and you can't find.  .  unseemly profits you find good healthy.  .  profits the insurance companies are.  .  going nuts.  .  insurance companies are printing money.  .  they have found a way to make the higher.  .  health care cost even more profitable.  .  yeah I know they're really disgusting.  .  immoral shameful people and I'm hoping.  .  for the public humiliations to start at.  .  some point in the future because it's.  .  really awful what they're doing just I.  .  would like where that one yeah I know.  .  yeah I know a boy can know so well what.  .  do you see you know in the closing.  .  moments here so you went dark at the end.  .  you you you think this gets a little.  .  worse before it gets better but what are.  .  you actually seeing in the next few.  .  years coming forward well at some point.  .  we're going to have a recession and then.  .  we're going to find out if Dave is right.  .  or wrong and his economic forecasting.  .  because I'm sort of in the John Hussman.  .  Club of overvaluation and you know.  .  overextended and I see all these guys.  .  who say yeah but on a blow-off top you.  .  got to stay invest and I got you know I.  .  don't care about that I mean if you tell.  .  me that in five years we're going to.  .  have buildings burning to the ground.  .  economically I'm happy to step aside now.  .  and and and and and they're kind of.  .  talking that way now the blow off top.  .  lingo is the way of saying stay invested.  .  stay invested don't jump out because.  .  this is where you're going to make a lot.  .  of money I go yeah that that's that's.  .  dumped I'm I'm not buying that model I.  .  think we're going to end up in the next.  .  recession whenever it comes and this way.  .  overdue in my opinion we're going to.  .  find out where the dead bodies are.  .  buried and then the question is if it's.  .  a generic recession I'm wrong.  .  and I think it's going to be a mean one.  .  I think it's going to be an awful one.  .  and I think the people are going to be.  .  mad it's going to have social unrest.  .  associated with it because the gimmick.  .  guys are going to go I lost my job again.  .  and now you're asking me to bail out the.  .  banks again how is this possible right.  .  mm-hmm that's what they're going to try.  .  to do and and we're not we're there some.  .  farmer said quit talking down to us.  .  we're smarter than you think and that's.  .  correct that is our collective wisdom is.  .  unbelievable.  .  yeah we're reading this year about how.  .  the Syrian chlorine gas attacks hmm.  .  you're a fraud I wrote about that last.  .  year Twitter totally debunked them right.  .  the populace knows this stuff now you.  .  can't miss this stuff if you're paying.  .  attention and now I've a sudden it's.  .  like and we knew that combing these guys.  .  has lied their asses often the Horowitz.  .  reports not a shock to me not a shock to.  .  you know right we knew they were lying.  .  and at some point at some point Joe.  .  Sixpack sis that's it I've had enough.  .  and I don't know what happens I don't.  .  know what happens I I keep thinking.  .  you're gonna tell me because you are so.  .  much more sort of up to speed on the.  .  social societal stuff but I can't.  .  picture how it's sort of like a person.  .  with you know stage 4 liver cancer go.  .  well what next I go you're gonna die.  .  right and and you can't wrap your brain.  .  around it well here's the thing you.  .  mentioned a government by Fiat and it's.  .  by the consent of the governed and of.  .  course we've been fairly willing with.  .  our consent for a long time but that can.  .  break quickly like that school officials.  .  like turning left and then we have a.  .  system of money by Fiat and it's really.  .  a faith based system and credit really.  .  operates on trust well we don't have.  .  that that's what we're taught that's the.  .  general theme here to me is this loss of.  .  trust and it's the erosion of that.  .  institutional trust in fact it's worse.  .  than that people now trust that the.  .  healthcare executives are going to be.  .  greedy shameful pigs who are gonna do.  .  everything they can to screw them right.  .  or wrong right we know that in the.  .  media's letting us top that city it's.  .  got mattered the most.  .  the media is letting us down.  .  completely and that that bothers me to.  .  no end because they're kind of the.  .  sheriff's on the beat yep right they're.  .  supposed to be out there watching and.  .  writing about this and doing their.  .  Woodward and Bernstein thing and there.  .  are some good ones like Cheryl Attkisson.  .  there's some good but there's some that.  .  are just so bad and and this is where.  .  Trump is correct when he attacks the.  .  media now the people hate Trump again I.  .  get it but the media is awful and.  .  they're constitutionally protected they.  .  don't deserve the protections get up on.  .  the bench bring someone off the bench.  .  and give them here by the way you know.  .  some guys that Starbucks you want greed.  .  the Starbucks CEO just got offered a.  .  fifty million dollar bonus if his shares.  .  three years from now who beat 80% of S.  .  irrespective of whether it's there up or.  .  down and here's the offer I'd make I'd.  .  find some smart potential CEO I say.  .  here's the deal we'll give you a job you.  .  work for free and if Starbucks has read.  .  these metrics which have nothing to do.  .  with share price share prices cancer to.  .  the system you give the CEO the chance.  .  to stay here to work for free for three.  .  years and if you get these metrics of.  .  real wealth creation to this level you.  .  get to keep the job but you're going to.  .  work for free till then and there'd be.  .  people who would say deal I'll take it.  .  I'll take it I'll take it you don't have.  .  to give a guy a huge salary and a fifty.  .  billion dollar bonus some people would.  .  just love that job well I would hate it.  .  actually like he's so incompetent but.  .  there's people who take a say Yeah right.  .  I don't need money I need a company I.  .  want to run a company right so so the.  .  reason he's getting a 50 million dollar.  .  bonus regardless of what the share price.  .  does as long as he beats the other guy.  .  think how much corruption that's going.  .  to create think how much think how much.  .  you know the insider crap and the.  .  buybacks or something he's going to do.  .  because he's got a 50 million dollar.  .  bogey he's gonna hit.  .  and he will rig it till he hits it.  .  there's no there's no chance he cares.  .  about the shareholders long-term he'll.  .  get the share price that's not long-term.  .  someone's going to get screwed if you.  .  pump the price up we know that's true I.  .  want a person who runs companies well I.  .  don't want a person who who just focuses.  .  on chip rest share price is a false.  .  indicator mm-hmm well and as we've seen.  .  you know when the reason I think this is.  .  going to be a barn burner of a recession.  .  because it's not really a recession the.  .  recession is a business cycle this is a.  .  credit cycle that's gonna burn itself.  .  out and when credit cycles end it's like.  .  lights out right all those c-suite.  .  decisions are like how many chairs are.  .  we gonna buy back well they just decide.  .  that afternoon no more right and you.  .  know all sorts of things that were sort.  .  of running flawlessly and forward just.  .  grind miserably into reverse you know.  .  and you know it's just it's really fast.  .  that was my learning from the last two.  .  bubbles you know when pets calm closes.  .  its doors down it happens pretty much.  .  overnight and everybody's fired right.  .  it's really fast whereas in a normal.  .  recession you know the business cycle.  .  starts to turn and Ford says well maybe.  .  we've got a little bit too much.  .  inventory it just takes months to sort.  .  of wind things down and mothball stuff.  .  and make painful firing decisions but.  .  when your credit runs out and your.  .  zombie company it's lights out that next.  .  day you know it's just it's it's over.  .  right yeah 10% of the S&P; 14% are said.  .  to be zombies 14 that's a James grant.  .  number 14% of those major companies are.  .  said to be zombies meaning their cash.  .  flow doesn't pay the interest on their.  .  debt those are going to be auctioned off.  .  on the courthouse steps mm-hmm.  .  when we hit the next and as you as you.  .  put it when credit cycles end you end up.  .  in in yeah I'm not afraid of deflation I.  .  am afraid of a deflationary collapse you.  .  ready to write deflation is fine if we.  .  had let deflation do its thing we'd be.  .  in great shape but no we don't but the.  .  deflationary collapse is a disaster.  .  right that's Great Depression 2.0 yeah.  .  yeah but we're not tough like we were in.  .  the thirties no but I you know what I.  .  know some people are trying to get tough.  .  because if they see it coming so.  .  it's it's kind of a there is a little.  .  bit of a movement out there amongst at.  .  least the people I hang with to become.  .  more resilient and get in shape and.  .  learn how to grow a few things in your.  .  garden because we might need to might.  .  need those skills back here on this next.  .  one so I'm just you know my summary is a.  .  pox on both houses and and shame on the.  .  institutions that are failing us so.  .  badly be at the Fed or the media but.  .  that's really on us you know those are.  .  self-inflicted wounds at this point in.  .  time and so you know I guess I'm okay if.  .  those chips have to fall where they're.  .  gonna have to and just you know.  .  hopefully it's not too bad my fear is.  .  that it is too bad and that you know it.  .  once things really begin to collect.  .  correct and go into collapse of.  .  financial system that's where.  .  politicians bring out their worst sides.  .  they blame China they say it was Russia.  .  they just make crap up and next thing.  .  you know there's missiles flying to.  .  speak of a different sort of a nuke I'm.  .  really worried about that possible.  .  outcome because because listen the DNC.  .  had a chance to say wow we put up.  .  probably the single worst person in the.  .  universe and they actually lost a Donald.  .  Trump we need to look in the mirror and.  .  not do that again and instead they just.  .  stopped bringing her back instead god.  .  please.  .  and instead they said oh it must have.  .  been Russia and came up with this whole.  .  thing that was easily debunked by people.  .  with with an a functioning computer.  .  inside of minutes and somehow you know.  .  that evaded the entire superstructure of.  .  commentators and and journalists and.  .  it's just a mystery to me that it anyway.  .  if we lack the ability to have even that.  .  level of introspection around these.  .  things III don't I don't I'm not too.  .  positive for how we're gonna respond.  .  when the next crisis starts yeah now I.  .  totally agree and so I that they're.  .  there and I think that's what the Fed.  .  sees so if I'm going to give them credit.  .  but by the way watch out this is a.  .  totally a tangential thing but the world.  .  hasn't picked up on this one there was a.  .  model put out by the saint who was fed.  .  for for a change in various reserve.  .  habits and and and that with the Fed.  .  proposed to do was to let was to let.  .  banks sell non reserve assets to the Fed.  .  it will.  .  and that would encourage them to keep.  .  their reserves to a minimum and it was.  .  put forth by this guy named David and.  .  Alfaro who has actually supposed to.  .  debate and then he bailed on me.  .  unfollowed me on Twitter apparently.  .  didn't like the fact that I've been.  .  hammering the Fed relentlessly but uh.  .  but but but what what they're trying to.  .  do is they're trying to give the bank's.  .  the power to do QE at will mm-hmm and.  .  it's it's got no press it's the end of.  .  ATO Trigg model it's got no press no he.  .  got mad at me when he was saying looked.  .  at what they'll do is they'll sell their.  .  Treasuries they'll they'll they'll take.  .  their excess reserves and they'll buy.  .  Treasuries now I think the model was.  .  that would allow them to them unwind the.  .  Fed balance sheet right because their.  .  excess reserves would be used to buy the.  .  Treasuries of the Fed to keep selling.  .  into the marketplace but I said but.  .  David what they're going to do is.  .  they're not going to buy Treasuries.  .  these excess reserves are just going to.  .  use to leverage up elsewhere and they.  .  will become non excess by statute they.  .  will become you don't they don't lend.  .  reserves they lend against reserves when.  .  you have excess reserves you have excess.  .  lending capacity and they will do that.  .  instead you're going to lever up the.  .  system you got mad and but watch for.  .  that because I think they're going to.  .  have QE on demand is is what I would.  .  call that model and it wrote quite a bit.  .  about that and it got no press it got no.  .  press that I can see but I think it's.  .  coming well it's just if you know you.  .  know we're gonna try more and more crazy.  .  things anything right to keep this whole.  .  thing sort of going and of course.  .  without a plan a master plan that says.  .  hey if we do keep this all going here's.  .  how it resolves you know you know here's.  .  what growth returns here's where here's.  .  when we finally pay stuff down because.  .  it's never a good time to pay stuff down.  .  during the expansion hey guys should we.  .  and then when it when the correction.  .  comes hey now is a terrible time it's.  .  always a bad time so you just keep.  .  pushing this further and further but.  .  eventually you know the big math problem.  .  here is people go oh oh 300 trillion.  .  dollars of Exton debt plus four times.  .  that in unfunded liabilities and all of.  .  those only make sense if we can have a.  .  future that's larger than the present.  .  well how do you get a larger future oh.  .  you gotta burn more oil you got to make.  .  more cars you got to build more houses.  .  takes resources so sooner or later.  .  people go oh we don't even have the.  .  resources to to make this square the.  .  circle in this story and and that's just.  .  so painfully obvious to me I don't know.  .  why it isn't even so I quoted you when.  .  you said I think was not too long ago.  .  actually where you said we've doubled.  .  our global oil consumption since the.  .  1990s.  .  how many more doublings do we have left.  .  and and that's exactly right to the.  .  extent that doubling the oil consumption.  .  is is not only a proxy for doubling the.  .  economy but it's it's it's a mandate for.  .  not only the economy right you burn oil.  .  to to grow your economy um you can't.  .  keep doubling right I go all the way.  .  back to the original crash course where.  .  you had a puddle in the infield in the.  .  stadium that fills the infield by noon.  .  right and you can't keep doubling the.  .  exponential function the Albert Bartlett.  .  moment it doesn't work and that's that.  .  was the great insight of the crash.  .  courses nothing nothing that's.  .  exponential is sustainable right right.  .  well thank you for that and it's listen.  .  we're out of time i we let's do this.  .  again let's do it again okay we got a.  .  lot more to talk about this has been an.  .  absolutely fascinating romp and thank.  .  you so much for of course taking the.  .  time it's a real public service I think.  .  writing your year-in-review and this.  .  one's a doozy yes really good and I.  .  think people actually really need to.  .  spend some time with it and to think.  .  through not just what are the.  .  implications if this fourth turning.  .  comes as it seems to be coming and what.  .  are the social implications of that but.  .  also what are their responses to that.  .  going to be how are they going to.  .  personally you know what actions you can.  .  take nothing something and so I there's.  .  a lot here to chew on a lot to consider.  .  and it's funny too.  .  so thanks for making it many moments of.  .  levity in there great quotes it's.  .  perfect so you're welcome thank you for.  .  having me.  .  all right dip until next time.  .  people you can find the Year in Review.  .  of course at peat prosperity and we'll.  .  have the link right at the bottom of.  .  this podcast so take it read it read it.  .  over a couple of mornings and let's have.  .  a great conversation about it at the.  .  site Dave thanks again you bet thank you.  .  you


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