- 1900 – peak velocity =~ about 40mph ( crude representative WAG )
- 1940 – we could go about 400 mph
- 1970 – 25000 mph
Just eyeball estimating it appears that every 50 years we are 10X velocity capable. I assume this is due to a random process of technological invention in an ensemble of a multitude of areas. Thus while the space shuttle has been going the same velocity for the past 25 years I think underlying are technology innovations that will one day bubble up and increase our peak velocity capability.
Thus I make the supposition that we should be able to go 10X 25000mph in the year 2020. This will yields a travel time of 8 days to Mars. This is a very lumpy prediction. None of the figures are exact but do seem reasonable to me.
An estimate of when we will be light speed capable
- Speed of light = 186,000 mi/sec
- Capable of 7 mi / sec in 1970
Solving the equation using the 10X speed increase per 50 years yields the estimate of 220 years from 1970 or in the year 2180.
I suspect this is highly conservative. My personal opinion is that near light speed will be reached before 2050. Peak human velocity was stuck at horse speeds for more than 2 millenia. Thus peak velocity is likely to rise more quickly than this estimate implies.
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