A MarketPlace of Ideas                        

• 1900 - peak velocity =~ about 40mph  ( crude representative  WAG )
• 1940 - we could go about 400 mph
• 1970 - 25000 mph

Just eyeball estimating it appears that every 50 years we are 10X velocity capable.  I assume this is due to a random process of technological invention in an ensemble of a multitude of areas.  Thus while the space shuttle has been going the same velocity for the past 25 years I think underlying are technology innovations that will one day bubble up and increase our peak velocity capability. 

Thus I make the supposition that we should be able to go 10X 25000mph in the year 2020.  This will yields a travel time of 8 days to Mars.  This is a very lumpy prediction. None of the figures are exact but do seem reasonable to me.

An estimate of when we will be light speed capable

• Speed of light = 186,000 mi/sec
• Capable of 7 mi / sec in 1970

Solving the equation using the 10X speed increase per 50 years yields the estimate of 220 years from 1970 or in the year 2180.

I suspect this is highly conservative.  My personal opinion is that near light speed will be reached before 2050.  Peak human velocity was stuck at horse speeds for more than 2 millenia.  Thus peak velocity is likely to rise more quickly than this estimate implies.

• In the 1970’s we had a sequence of recessions due to rapidly rising oil costs alone.
• In 1990 we had a recession due to a bust in the housing market alone.

We now have these together at the same time.  We should have seen it coming.   Ever since the 70’s we have been skating on thin ice.  Too dainty were we to drill on our own soil.  It was only a matter of time before we got our tails caught in the wringer.

Following standard remedies the following would happen

• housing bust ? - increase liquidity 
• oil spurt ? -  increased liquidity is bad - as money is more available oil prices rise.  Decreased liquidity is needed.  But that slows economies and exacerbates a housing bust. 

Our economy is effectively stuck in a ditch.   In one direction the ditch wall is made up of the housing bust liquidity and in the other direction the ditch wall is made up of the inverse relation of oil and liquidity.

The gears are already grinding to a halt. Credit liquidity is drying up as of this writing in September 2008.  As already noted I predict a serious bust for 2009 on the basis of my conversations with various business people.

We are in serious trouble.  This situation will not be remedied until we start drilling like wild men.  Alternative sources of energy are just not mature enough to fill the gap quickly enough.

Most people know about the "Great Depression" of the 1930’s.  However what most people do not know is they know of this one because mass communication was available then.  Previously in the United States has undergone other less publicized economic turmoil.  Thus the phenomenon of economic depression is not as uncommon as one might think.  Here is a partial list:

• Long Depression  - some say 1873 - 1893 was one long depression.
• Great Depression
• Financial Crisis   -  See the following topics
• Panic of 1819 - pervasive USA economic recession w/ bank failures.  Book on the subject: The Panic of 1819, Reactions and Policies
• Panic of 1825 - pervasive British economic recession in which many British banks failed, & Bank of England nearly failed
• Panic of 1837 - pervasive USA economic recession w/ bank failures; a 5 yr. depression ensued.
• Panic of 1857 - pervasive USA economic recession w/ bank failures
• Panic of 1873 - pervasive USA economic recession w/ bank failures; a 4 yr. depression ensued.
• Panic of 1893 - pervasive USA economic recession w/ bank failures
• Panic of 1901 - limited to crashing of the New York Stock Exchange
• Panic of 1907 - pervasive USA economic recession w/ bank failures
• Kondratiev_wave - This may be economic theory’s version of U.F.O.s but it does predict a downturn at the correct time
• Austrian_Theory_of_the_Business_Cycle - Theory that states bubbles are a result of central banks setting interest rates artificially low -  Sound familar ?  Read this arty because it describes the economy very well.

Reference this arty: Detroit’s sputtering Big Three turn to Washington for help

The car makers want some federally guaranteed loans to help them cope with tough times and more importantly raised CAFE standards that bring fleet averages up to 35 miles per gallon.

Nice. So rather than just let this CAFE thing die a slow death we are going to make huge loans to the car companies.  Never mind that we could just be the slightest bit patient and wait for the Chevy Volt et al come out in 2010.  With the advent of practical electric car solutions CAFE standards should be rendered obsolete in their current forms.  Yet we the tax payer are going to be on the hook for guarantees.

CONCLUSION:   The politicians probably just want to loan a bunch of money to the car companies because there are a ton of union thugs that work for them. 

I hope that these car companies do not become the Conrail of the 21st century.  We all know how helpful that little bit of socialism was.

           Was I not supposed to see the similarity between the google chrome browser symbol and the old Simon game?    Does it help to smoke a little pot before using Google Chrome?  It certainly did with Simon.   In college I used to put the speaker to my ear and go solely by sound and worked the buttons like lightning. 

How uncreative can the unDemocrats be?  They tried to trash a huge pile of fresh new American flags used at the unDemocrat convention.   As green as the lefties claim to be it appears the Republicans trump them in the recycling arena as they were the ones to reuse the aforesaid flags. 

The ironic thing is that the unDemocrats had a sure thing going.   This trashing of the flags was the singularly least creative thing I have seen so far this year,.   What with ebay someone could have sold the flags touting the true fact that they were straight from the Dem convention.  This is why they can not be trusted to run the country.   Those flags could have been turned into gold.  Instead they are a P.R. nightmare because they demonstrate the Dems are nothing but hot air on environmental issues.

More than 20 years ago Arizona did not have an MLK day.  This is simple to explain as I was here at the time the issue was debated.  Arizona state employees like many other state employees have more days off than they work.  ( slight hyperbole …. but not much! ).    It was suggested at the time that they state employees give up another holiday in trade for the MLK day.  Of course being that they are unionized thugs they would not accept this and they used the excuse that MLK was worthy of his own day.   However that was not disputed.  They just greedily wanted yet another day off and would not comprimise.

In the end the issue was resolved illegally by then governor Babbitt who by established the holiday by fiat.  Nevermind that subverting rule of law and democracy is even more important than MLK could ever be as it is the only substrate that MLK could have worked in.  China would merely have sent him to a work camp.