I have included this video because it is one of the first that directly addresses and predicts what will happen when the world pulls out of the present economic depression.
Archive for the ‘Future’ Category
Dear Lord please let these bailouts fail soon.
My fellow humans are selling out their liberty for comfort promised by politicians
delivered through use of a money bazooka. This provides results as
cold and empty as a witches tit but yet they persist as any amount of suffering
in the name of liberty has been decided to be too much.
Thus I ask you dear lord to let these bail outs fail. Whether they be
the USA, China or Europe. Visit corrections upon the markets and deliver us
from market distortion. Let spendthrift governments collaborating in a cross
border ponzi scheme fail and fall. Let gift of ability to smile in the face of adversity be
returned to mankind. We know that is what it will take to get through this time
without losing our freedom. In your truth you know that only the purgative
of collapse will exorcise the spirit of ponzi and the politicians lust for borrowed money.
And finally dear lord please spare the lives of millions when the bailouts
fail and politicians cast about for means to stay in office begin to start wars.
- I have seen this kind of stability analysis applied before. It is valid for circuits and system functions – I would posit it is valid for economic systems
- When economies start using debt to drive employment things are ok for a few economic cycles – then you hit a last cycle when debt taken on is huge – the economic levitation ends – the economy shuts down.
- The blue trace with loops is a tracing of oscillator "squegging" as we call it in electrical engineering – parametric modulation
- because private debt levels are so high private deleveraging can overwhelm government deficit spending
- writing off the bad debt – a.k.a. recognizing the bad debt is the only solution
- to stabilize the system the system should be tweaked to limit the amount of personal debt individuals are willing to take on – base housing loan prices on rents you can get for said house instead of what appraisers conjure up
- Full talk at the Whitlam Institute is here
- The associated PowerPoint presentation is here
This is more an economic and political history of Britain than anything else. The economic and political epochs of Britain are covered with nothing else talked about. Even cultural events mentioned have strong bearing on economics with an example being a massive party that was the prototype rave. Raves of this type are pay for entry models and more an economic effort than a party as much as they are talked up to the opposite.
Britain was on the edge of bankruptcy at the end of world war 2. They owed money to the USA and at the same time they wanted to undertake a huge welfare effort including socialized medicine. Sound familiar? Sounds like the USA to me in 2009 under Obama. If you have interest in economics you need to watch all 5 of these shows. In many ways the USA appears to be squarely on the same path as this has been empire.
…..And just so you know Britain paid off the last of the loans from this era in the 2000’s.
From video description: Britain in 1945; the country is victorious but nearly bankrupt. As Clement Attlee’s Labour government sets out to build ‘New Jerusalem’, Britain is forced to hold out the begging bowl in Washington. Though Ealing Studios produces a series of very British comedies and there is a spirit of hope in the air, the British people’s growing impatience with austerity threatens to take the country from bankruptcy to self-destruction.
- To be added upon second viewing
Links to all the videos
Andrew Marr’s History of Modern Britain
Episode 1 – Advance Britannia 1945-1955
Episode 2 – The Land of Lost Content 1955-1964
Episode 3 – Paradise Lost 1964-1979
Episode 4 – Revolution! 1979-1990
Episode 5 – New Britannia 1990-2007
The next boom / bust cycle is already in the cards. Our wizards of smart politicians in Washington D.C. have insured that with a tanker load of fiat issued scrit paper money. So what is my prediction? It goes like this
- Next year … 2009 will be a very slow year for business. More bank failures.
- Some time in 2010 probably late in the year the economy will start to pick up
- mid 2011 the economy will pick up steam. It will start a powerful wave of inflation ( just as the politicians want! ) This wave of buying will beget more buying as people race to buy in as momentum takes everything higher. You won’t have any actual more value in your hand for your assets. You will just have cash that is worth less because of the inflation.
- The consumer will die out promptly …….more quickly than even this time round in 2008.
- The next bust will be even bigger. The government will have less power to affect outcomes. Foreign nations twice burnt will swear off investing in the USA
- The amplitude of the swings have been getting bigger each time we cycle through.
- Quite possibly the next downturn will be a depression because of the increasing amplitude. This will happen because of 2 factors. #1 is that people’s spending power will be decreased. Savings having been devalued so by passage of time with severe inflation. #2 Interpersonal trust will be so corroded from the debasement of the currency. People will feel this on an unconscious level because of the corrosion of value of savings / currency
- The politicians of the left will like it because we’ll all be reduced to feeding out of the palm of their hand. A mere whimper on their part and you will be left to starve on your own for not being an upright socialist.
Washington politicians can put up with anything except the possibility of losing power. And you keep electing so many of the same ones over and over.
When I was very young I was interested in the moon landing programs. I quickly homed in on the problem of propulsion in space. I also quickly became discouraged. I felt as though physics may never give us the present of the possibility of interstellar travel. This was the late 60’s and society and technology seemed to crawl at a snails pace.
But now its 2008 and in the intervening time our pace of technology has increased substantially. After additional study of physics and review of what type of research work is being done I am confident we will in the next 50 years send a probe to Rigel Kentaurus. Rigel Kentaurus is the nearest star group to us at about 4.3 lightyears.
aether.lbl.gov/www/classes/p139/speed/Alpha-Centauri.html – more detailed information on the system including a comparative with our solar system
How much time is required to accelerate to near the speed of light at 1g acceleration?
in days … thus some days will require higher accelerations.
This can be achieved with a near massless drive powered by nuclear means. The data link back might be a bit slow.
Small nuclear reactors in the 70 MW thermal or 25 MW electrical power range.
Unlike conventional designs, the proposed reactor is self-regulating through the inherent properties of uranium hydride, which serves as a combination fuel and moderator. The temperature-driven mobility of the hydrogen contained in the hydride controls the nuclear activity. If the core temperature increases over the set point, the hydrogen is driven out of the core, the moderation drops, and the power production decreases. If the temperature drops, the hydrogen returns and the process is reversed. Thus the design is inherently fail-safe and will require minimal human oversight. The compact nature and inherent safety open the possibility for low-cost mass production and operation of the reactors.
The Hyperion design takes advantage of the economy of mass-production instead of the economy of scale (as is done presently with traditional reactors). HPG estimates that approximately 4,000 of the first module design will be needed to meet initial demand. This feature will likely yield a much more widespread adoption of this nuclear technology.
Their website is: www.hyperionpowergeneration.com
- We need cheaper energy not more expensive alternatives.
- In order to merely provide the rest of the world with european level power will require 4X current energy investment. We won’t get there from here. That includes fossil, nuclear, solar and wind power. All together insufficient.
Currently popular alternatives are not energy dense enough to get the price of energy down. Material costs are too much. Added benefit? If we can make it work it will lead to propulsion that will allow sending probes to the nearest stars.
I am currently researching if D Wave has a public interface where one can submit jobs to one of their quantum computers. I have not found if they have yet but I have found one of the founders blog here: http://dwave.wordpress.com/
Seems to be throwing one machine open to the public would be a good idea. Some jackass somewhere will use it for something it was totally not meant for and it will turn out to be the best use for it. Or maybe I am just saying this because I want a chance to have a few runs on it.
UpDate( 08-13-2008): D-Wave has a mocked up system with classical solvers where you can become familiar with their user interface. You can sign up here: sandbox.dwavesys.com/orionui/
Oil prices are now falling due to the world going into a recession. Iran is economically on the edge. Iran and company will start a war to increase the price of oil. Mark my words on this date August 1, 2008.