Economist and Economic Modeller Steve Keen showing instability inherent in high debt economies

Steve Keen talks about instability inherent in high debt economies.  He does this while modeling economies on a computer and demonstrating the oscillations.

Video Notes

  • I have seen this kind of stability analysis applied before.  It is valid for circuits and system functions – I would posit it is valid for economic systems
  • When economies start using debt to drive employment things are ok for a few economic cycles – then you hit a last cycle when debt taken on is huge – the economic levitation ends – the economy shuts down.
  • The blue trace with loops is a tracing of oscillator "squegging" as we call it in electrical engineering – parametric modulation
  • because private debt levels are so high private deleveraging can overwhelm government deficit spending
  • writing off the bad debt – a.k.a. recognizing the bad debt is the only solution
  • to stabilize the system the system should be tweaked to limit the amount of personal debt individuals are willing to take on – base housing loan prices on rents you can get for said house instead of what appraisers conjure up
  • Full talk at the Whitlam Institute is here
  • The associated PowerPoint presentation is here

Convolution of time signals using polynomials-The Super Easy Z transform

[pmath] 1+x+x^2 [/pmath] [pmath size=16] * [/pmath]   [pmath]  1+x+x^2 = [/pmath]  [pmath]1+2x+3x^2+2x^3+x^4[/pmath]

  • The filter is the sum of the last 3 signal samples. 
  • The signal is a pulse set of three ones.  The signal arrives 1 sample at a time.

Polynomial convolution diagram showing how coefficient of multiplied polynomials correspond to signal amplitudes

Notice the coefficients of the multiplied polynomials are equal to the signal output values at times 0 through 4.

If instead of using X as our variable we could use Z and we would see that all this is the Z transform.   The following principle is true for the above signal and filter.  It is true in general.

    Signal convolved with Filter    [pmath] doubleleftright [/pmath] Transform of signal [pmath size=16] * [/pmath]  Transform of filter

Notice that the powers of X perform the function of place holding for location in time.  They keep track of what we can tally and these tallies correspond in power of X to time.  Time=4 corresponds to powers of 4 of X.

Oki 900 Analog Cell phone can be put into Scanner Mode

Power the phone up.  Wait for PowerOn msg.  Hit 7 and 9 together.  Then hit Menu, Snd, End, Rcl, Sto, Clr.  Phone says good timing!  Rather humorous wouldn’t you say?   http://www.phreak.org/archives/radiophone/oki/DEBUG.DOC   For digital phone scanning: http://www.hackwire.com/comments.php?catid=1&id=191   So when you talk on your cell phone…. Talk as though you Read more…