Predictions Regarding the USA Economic Future and the Dropping Dollar

Alot of common sense people see how much money the USA borrows to pay its bills and feel genuine fear.

On paper it appears a stark situation.  I’ve watched this phenomenon for more than 2 decades now.  How to analyze this?

It seems that something in the paper analysis must be at least partially wrong. Otherwise catastrophe should have happened before this point in time.  While its possible that disaster looms around the corner more likely the mundane lurks around the corner.

Let me make some rapid fire observations in my boring engineerical way.

1- Imagine being a normal Chinese, Brazilian, Indian or European citizen.  Let’s use China in our thought experiment. Say you have an idea and all of a sudden you find yourself with an economic success.  Does the power structure latent in the society leave you alone?  NO.   Thus any success in such a culture is self limiting.  Our government / society is not blameless in this regard but in comparison how do you think we rank ?  

      — If you think China ranks better then you should go read the daily kos. You’re hopelessly stupid and naive.  Send me your address I’ll send you a child’s bedtime story book for your mummy to read you.

2- While the USA has no monopoly on smart people we’re still the ones driving alot of the innovation.

3- If smart guys want to go somewhere to be more free to innovate, the USA is the heart of the empire!

4- Its really obvious if you are an ebay seller that the rest of the worlds economy is functioning better than ever before.  They have currency and it may have well come from our previous imbalances of trade.

Thus when people express worries about the balance of trade and the falling dollar I reply with the following scenario for how things can possibly go right:

  Other countries with their comparably intellectually inflexible economies monetized by USA dollars will buy from the USA in increasing amounts as the dollar falls.  Industries previously uneconomic in the USA may again become economic.  Increased opportunity probabilities will fall upon businesses including highly skilled immigrant workers from India, Brazil, China etc.  They will understand the markets back home and do well.  Parts of the American Economic Ideal will be exported back home in the form of ideas and expectations.

In fact I think its entirely possible that if you start to thing of the USA not as a place but as an idea our balance of trade is already positive because its not just in the 50 states but in China, Brazil,India etc.  Stop thinking about business being only good if it falls under a perview that is taxable by the US government.  Start thinking about how any time a fair honest business deal goes down that another victory for democracy and civil society is won.  Start thinking positive and that all the citizens of the planet can be economically empowered to levels equal to the USA.

Of course the malthusians in the crowd will say “The earth can not support all 6 billion in the fashion we Americans have become accustomed”   I think its demonstrably wrong.  Of course if we use the same old methods to build the things we need commodity prices will be pushed to the Moon.   That’s a very linear way of thinking.  Its very obvious that within 15 years alternate forms of energy ( other than the forms the eco-queers drone on about ) will cut petro generated energy demand.  You’ll see if you look closely around you just how much you actually use and how much you waste.  The waste in the system is incredible.  Economics will drive the waste out of the system and 6 billion+ people can live at higher standards than we in the USA currently live at.

All it will take to happen is for you not to be a scardy-cat.  Believe this enlightenment of mankind can occur and it will.  Don’t believe and you will delay it and increase the suffering time…..but in the end it will still come.

Its an attractive thought to the superstitious and religious that there will be a day of reconning.  That we’ve been bad little humans and warmed the globe.  Its all book selling malthusian theory.  The problem is that its been proved wrong by 6 billion people waking up everyday and continuing to breath day in and day.  Its the triump of the mundane over the sensational disaster movie book selling scenario.   When imagining the future try daydreaming about the common and mundane events in your life.  Try imagining yesterday.  That’s what tomorrows most likely going to be most similar to.

Of course there is only one real disaster scenario for the USA.  That is that we continue to leak away our capitalist heritage and we arrive at a point where we are intellectually less flexible than the nations I have just compared us to.  Universal health care anyone ?   No thanks.  I’d rather go it alone on my own devices.