If you read my back of the napkin on the envelop calculation about how much cellulosic ethanol we can produce in the USA using trash then you know that number is likely substantial.
When this happens corn prices are going to fall.
Cellulosic ethanol will be relatively cheap. Look for forces outside and inside government to slap a significant tax on this. The reason? Because they can. There will be significant budget margin to do so. Thus Oil industry and government will conspire to locate the price of ethanol at a price that supports petroleum pricing. Likewise government thugs will in no way be able to resist the cash. They spend like drunken sailors. Expect to be treated like a childs college savings account when the alcoholic father needs another bottle of whiskey.
Good news is that currently its legal to make your own ethanol if it is for you fuel. I wonder if this will change. I think its likely. Look for the excuse to be “fire safety”  Hopefully it won’t hold in this libertarian internet era!
0 Comments